Preseason Numbers Don't Love USC's College Football Playoff Chances

USC football has been trending upwards as of late with hype around the upcoming freshman class and continued success on the 2027 recruiting trail. But the preseason numbers are not nearly as enthusiastic about what coach Lincoln Riley and the Trojans have been building over past couple of months. Despite roster upgrades and recruiting momentum, preseason metrics suggest the Trojans still trail the Big Ten’s elite heading into the 2026 season.

The Trojans enter the season ranked No. 13 in ESPN’s SP+ preseason rankings, fourth in the Big Ten. On the surface, that’s respectable, but in context, it’s a warning sign. Ohio State (No. 1), Oregon (No. 2), and Indiana (No. 5) all sit comfortably ahead, creating a clear tier separation.

FanDuel Sportsbook's odds reinforce the same message, placing USC fifth in the conference at +1500 to win the Big Ten. The reality is that on paper the Trojans may be better, but until it's put on the field, they aren't trusted.

USC Must Turn Momentum Into Results

USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley Big Ten Oregon Ducks Indiana Hoosiers Ohio State Buckeyes College Football Playoff — Nov 16, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Riley and the Trojans have done all the groundwork to make this a successful season. They anded the No. 1 recruiting class in 2026 and continue to build with a top-four 2027 class. Riley has reshaped the roster with high-end talent like Iowa State cornerback Jontez Williams in the transfer portal, while returning 17 starters, including nine on offense. All perfect ingredients for a breakout season.

Riley who has had some strong teams in his time with the Trojans has raved about this team since the beginning of camp. Even with having had a Heisman Trophy winner in quarterback Caleb Williams and a Biletnikoff Award winner in wide receiver Makai Lemon, Riley has never sounded more confident in a roster.

“We’re going to have some young talent that is certainly going to contribute and I think our talent there is pretty unique,” Riley told the New York Post back in February. “But also, the experienced part of this roster is really experienced and really old too. I mean, you start looking at kind of what we return and then you look at historically, what do championship teams and really good teams typically return, we return a lot in those key areas.”

Still, development on paper doesn’t equal wins in November. USC's schedule is going to force them to prove it. Beyond an early rematch against the Oregon Ducks in September, the Trojans have a guantlet to work through. With the Washington Huskies, Penn State Nittany Lions, Indiana and Ohio State all waiting in Big Ten play, the road is a steep one.

Realistically to be in contention for the College Football Playoff, USC will have to finish the season at least 10-2. To do that, they will likely need to win at least three of those games. That’s not just a test, it’s a measuring stick against some of the very teams the metrics already trust more. This is where preseason projections become reality checks. USC isn’t being dismissed but they are being challenged.

A Defining Season for Lincoln Riley

The pressure on Riley to win big this season is seemingly as high as its ever been. Entering his fifth season leading the Trojans, the expectations have shifted from building to delivering. And with another blown season where USC misses the playoff, the questions will only get louder.

College football analyst Josh Pate of On3 recently spoke on Riley in a appearance on the Crain and Company show. Rather singing the praise of Riley as he tends to do on his podcast, the Josh Pate College Football Show, he instead sent a blunt message about the possible future of Riley if USC suffers another underwhelming season.

“With Lincoln I agree, I think USC’s gotta make the playoffs this year. Or I think his job is in real jeopardy.”

The reality is that USC isn't lacking the talent or the resources to be viable contenders in the Big Ten. What it hasn’t shown is the ability to consistently beat elite teams in its new conference. Riley's above .500 record since taking over USC reflects a program that has been good, but not dominant.

If the Trojans want to shift perception, they'll need signature wins. Luckily for them, they have more than their fair share of tough opponents where they'll get to prove themselves. A major win against either of Ohio State, Oregon or Indiana would be a tone setter. Wins over multiple of them within the group would lift USC into a new tier.

Right now the numbers make it clear that USC is close, but not there yet. And until that changes on the field, preseason skepticism will continue to define the Trojans’ reality.

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