ESPN analytics favor Utah over Texas Tech in Big 12 showdown

Utes and Red Raiders square off in a battle of Big 12 contenders

Utah Utes defensive end John Henry Daley (90) leads the country with 5.0 sacks heading into showdown against Texas Tech Red Raiders. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

A showdown in the Big 12 takes center stage on Saturday, when Utah hosts Texas Tech in a nationally-televised contest between top-20 programs.

With Fox's Big Noon Kickoff crew in town, the Utes will look to improve to 4-0 as they take on a high-powered Red Raiders squad that's also looking to remain unbeaten in 2025 after thumping their last three opponents in nonleague play.

The first meeting on the gridiron between the two schools in over 50 years is set to feature a pair of the Big 12's most prolific passers in Devon Dampier and Behren Morton. In addition to leading Utah's rushing attack,

Dampier's completing 73.0% of his pass attempts — the second-highest clip in the conference behind TCU's Josh Hoover — and is the only quarterback in the league with over 85 pass attempts and zero interceptions on the season. In fact, the New Mexico transfer has thrown 175 consecutive passes without a pick, a streak that dates back to when his Lobos lost a shootout to Wyoming, 49-45, on Nov. 2.

On the other side, Texas Tech's signal-caller boasts an astonishing 208.4 passer rating and leads the Big 12 with 11 touchdown passes heading into Week 4. Morton's also second to Baylor's Sawyer Robertson in passing yards (923) — albeit, Robertson had 54 more pass attempts than Morton did through the Bears' first three games.

Texas Tech's Behren Morton (left) talks to Jacob Rodriguez. | Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

"Both quarterbacks ... are playing very well, and their QB, his passer rating is over 200; it's like 208 or something like that, which is really good," said Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham. "I mean, that's off the charts, good."

When trying to determine which side has the edge, sportsbooks and prognosticators alike are torn. However, ESPN Analytics appears quite definitive in its prediction for Saturday's highly-anticipated matchup between Utah and Texas Tech.

ESPN Analytics give Utah the advantage

While several media members foresee a close one playing out at Rice-Eccles Stadium on Saturday, ESPN's matchup predictor gives the Utes a healthy 65% win probability rate heading into their Big 12 season opener.

Sep 13, 2025; Laramie, Wyoming, USA; Utah Utes tight end Hunter Andrews (10) carries the ball for a touchdown as tackle Mike Tauteoli (49) blocks in the fourth quarter against the Wyoming Cowboys at Jonah Field at War Memorial Stadium. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

For reference, when ESPN's matchup predictor determined Utah's likelihood of winning each one of its games back in August, the Utes were the narrow favorites with a 52.7% win probability rate over the Red Raiders.

That was when ESPN's algorithm wasn't quite as high on Utah, which was coming off a disappointing 5-7 campaign in 2024. But since the Utes' thrashing of UCLA in Week 1, ESPN Analytics has updated its outlook to favor Utah in all but one of its remaining nine games (the exception being its Oct. 18 contest at BYU, which Utah currently has a 46% chance of winning).

SP+ has Utah narrowly beating Texas Tech

ESPN SP+, an advanced college football rating system developed by network analyst Bill Connelly, forecasts a close win at home for the Utes over the Red Raiders.

Connelly's formula has Utah beating Texas Tech, 28-26, with a projected scoring margin of 1.9 points.

In addition to calculating final scores for each matchup, SP+ ranks teams based on their assigned numeric rating, typically expressed as a margin of points per game against an average Football Bowl Subdivision opponent. In regard to Utah, it checks in at No. 16 in the country in SP+ rating at 68.9. Among Big 12 constituents, only Texas Tech (69.5) has a higher SP+ rating.