What ESPN analytics say about Utah football's chances of beating West Virginia

ESPN's metric-based prediction models favor Utes over Mountaineers in Week 5 matchup

Utah Utes quarterback Devon Dampier (4) and cornerback Rock Caldwell (11) celebrate the victory against the UCLA Bruins at Rose Bowl. | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Two Big 12 teams looking to keep pace in the ultra-competitive conference title race strive to get back on track Saturday, when Utah meets West Virginia in Morgantown, West Virginia, for a pivotal league contest.

While the Utes strive to put a 24-point defeat to Texas Tech behind them, the Mountaineers hope to completely wash away their lackluster outing against Kansas in their league opener, setting up an intriguing battle between two teams that need to get back in the win column in order to keep up with the rest of the conference.

But only one squad will come out of Milan Puskar Stadium with a .500 record in Big 12 play, and according to ESPN's prediction models, Utah has the upper hand going into the matchup.

ESPN Matchup Predictor Favors Utes

ESPN's matchup predictor has been more favorable to the Utes since the start of the season, and that trend continues heading into Week 5 as Utah boasts a 72.2% win probability rate over West Virginia heading into Saturday.

The Utes, who previously had the upper hand in five of their 12 regular-season games heading into the 2025 campaign, according to ESPN analytics, are now the algorithm's favorite to win six of their final eight Big 12 contests, with exceptions to upcoming road trips to BYU on Oct. 18 (28.2%) and Kansas on Nov. 28 (38.1%).

Utah's remaining win probability rates in Big 12 play

• Oct. 11 vs. Arizona State: 58.1% (up from 41.6% at the start of the season)
• Oct. 18 at BYU: 38.1% (up from 30%)
• Oct. 25 vs. Colorado: 72.1% (up from 56.4%)
• Nov. 1 vs. Cincinnati: 71.6% (up from 65.5%)
• Nov. 15 at Baylor: 52% (up from 31.6%)
• Nov. 22 vs. Kansas State: 73.4% (up from 38.9%)
• Nov. 28 at Kansas: 38.1% (up from 30%)

SP+ Projects Utah Wins By Double-Digits

Bill Connelly's SP+ model, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measurement of college football efficiency, grants the Utes an 83% chance of beating the Mountaineers on the road, with a final score prediction of 32-17.

Connelly's metrics-based formulas have accurately predicted three of Utah's four games so far this season, with the exception of last week's Texas Tech game.

The Utes check in at No. 19 in the Week 5 version of the SP+ rankings. They trail only No. 8 Texas Tech among Big 12 teams, while their next opponent, the Mountaineers, come in at No. 77 (No. 15 out of the 16 Big 12 programs).