Why Utah was placed in the College Football Playoff rankings' top 12 and what it means for the Utes

Looking at the Utes' potential paths to earning a spot in the 12-team playoff

Utah Utes head coach Kyle Whittingham and his team can keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive with a win over the Kansas State Wildcats on Saturday. | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

Utah was slotted at No. 12 in Tuesday's College Football Playoff rankings, setting the Utes up as the second team out of the 12-team bracket heading into a pivotal Week 13 across the country.

Because the five highest-ranked conference champions will earn automatic bids, and only three conferences — the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 — were represented in the most recent top 12, the selection committee would have to make room for presumably the ACC champion and a conference winner from one of the Group of 5 leagues if that same scenario from Tuesday played out in the final rankings reveal on Dec. 7.

Miami, ranked No. 13 in the CFP rankings, was the placeholder for the ACC in Tuesday's projected bracket, despite the fact the Hurricanes (8-2, 4-2 ACC) sat behind four other one-loss teams in their league heading into the final two weeks of the regular season, while No. 24 Tulane held the Group of 5's spot as the highest-ranked team outside of the power conference structure.

Both Utah and Miami needed help getting to their respective conference championship games going into Week 13, though it would've been reasonable to question how the selection committee ranked each team during Tuesday's reveal, given the Hurricanes held a narrow edge over the Utes in strength of record (No. 16 vs. No. 18), strength of schedule (No. 43 to No. 46) and had a notable win over a top-10 team in No. 9 Notre Dame, unlike Utah which was 0-2 against the Big 12's top ranked teams in Texas Tech and BYU.

However, the Utes' setbacks to the No. 5 Red Raiders and No. 11 Cougars actually helped them regarding their position in the CFP rankings.

"In regards to Utah being ahead of Miami — I mean, Utah, they've lost two games this season, one to No. 5 Texas Tech and one to No. 11 BYU," said College Football Playoff selection committee chairman and Arkansas athletic director, Hunter Yurachek, during Tuesday's reveal on ESPN. "Comparatively, Miami's lost two games, one at home to an unranked Louisville and one on the road against an unranked SMU. So when you talk about two teams that are 8-2 and you don't really have a common opponent or head-to-head matchup, you really look at the losses Utah has versus the losses Miami has."

What it means for the Utes

Sitting as the second team out and directly behind a conference foe that's already beaten them head-to-head doesn't bode well for the Utes' at-large chances with only two weeks left in the regular season. They'd need a few upsets involving Nos. 8-11 (Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Alabama and/or BYU) to have a shot at getting above the cut line, but even then it wouldn't be a guarantee that the selection committee decides to move them into the top 10.

The likeliest path to the playoffs for Utah is through the Big 12 championship game. That would require some outside help, since the Utes sit behind the Red Raiders (10-1, 7-1 Big 12) and Cougars (9-1, 6-1 Big 12) in the conference standings.

There are a few scenarios, though, in which Utah would leapfrog its way to Arlington, Texas, for the conference title game on Dec. 6, and they all involve a multi-team tie for first place in the league standings.

Utah's path to Big 12 championship game

The Utes own an advantage over the rest of the league when it comes to conference strength of schedule, which takes precedent over head-to-head matchups in sorting out multi-team ties in the standings. Conference strength of schedule is determined by the win percentage of a team's league opponents. Currently, including its final two regular-season bouts against Kansas State and Kansas, Utah's opponents have won the highest percentage of games in the Big 12 (59%) compared to the other 15 teams in the league.

So, assuming Texas Tech beats West Virginia, BYU handles business against UCF and Utah's strength of schedule ranking holds up, the Utes could clinch a spot in the championship game if:

• Cincinnati beats BYU at home on Saturday and goes on the road and beats TCU the following week
• Arizona State wins out with victories at Colorado and at home against Arizona
• Utah knocks off Kansas State at home and triumphs at Kansas in the final week of the regular season

This scenario would knot up Utah, BYU, Cincinnati and Arizona State at 7-2, giving the Utes an edge for the No. 2 spot in the standings.

Utah can also move up the ladder in the case of a four-team tie for second, which could happen if it, Houston, Cincinnati and Arizona State all won out.

The bottom line: the Utes would benefit from a multi-team tie because they are No. 1 in the Big 12 in conference strength of schedule, but they'll need the Bearcats to snap their two-game losing skid and upset the Cougars for a three- or possibly four-team tie for second place to occur.

Would Utah need to win the Big 12 championship game?

Yurachek admitted Tuesday the Big 12 championship game will be "just another data point" the selection committee uses when it compares the last two standing to the other teams in the top 25 of the CFP rankings during the final rankings reveal. Obviously, the winner would most likely earn an automatic bid into the playoff — but if the loser isn't Texas Tech, getting more than one Big 12 team in might require some more luck.

Barring a crazy upset to the 4-7 Mountaineers, the Red Raiders' résumé is essentially locked as a playoff participant with a top 10 strength of record. A loss in the Big 12 title game wouldn't be as damaging for them as it would be for a team that's on the fringe of making the playoff, like Utah or BYU, for example.