Vanderbilt Commodores

NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction 9.0: Impact of Conference Tournaments

Conference baseball tournaments are starting this week and how those tournaments play out will have a significant impact on the NCAA Tournament.
Taylor Hodges|
The UGA paint line gets fired up during a NCAA baseball game against Arkansas in Athens, Ga., on Friday, April 11, 2025.
The UGA paint line gets fired up during a NCAA baseball game against Arkansas in Athens, Ga., on Friday, April 11, 2025. | Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

What a fun baseball season this has been, and the excitement and craziness will intensify from here on out. Conference baseball tournaments start tomorrow and then the NCAA Tournament will start.

We’re six days away from the field of 64 being selected. What happens in the conference tournaments could seriously shake up NCAA Tournament bracket predictions. A bubble team could go on a run or a team with little-to-no hope of making the tournament could win their conference.

That’s a nightmare scenario for bubble teams like UT Rio Grande Valley, Cal Poly or Arizona State. Let’s say, for an example, No. 19 Northeastern doesn’t win the Coastal Athletic Association tournament and College of Charleston does. Charleston would get the conference’s automatic bid, but Northeastern would still get into the tournament.

But that turned a one-bid conference into a two-bid conference and would see one of the last four teams get moved to the first four out column. Using the bracket prediction below, that would mean either Cal Poly or UTRGV wouldn’t be in the tournament.

Things like that happen all the time and are nearly impossible to predict. That’s one reason why I like using the current standings to decide the automatic qualifiers. Sometimes that exact situation happens and adds a little bit of spice into making predictions.

Speaking of making predictions, you can see my NCAA Baseball Tournament Prediction 9.0 below. I do plan on doing one after the conference tournaments are wrapped up, so be sure to check back late Saturday/early Sunday for that.

Here are a few notes and thoughts about this week’s bracket:

  • The SEC leads with 13 teams in the bracket, followed by the ACC with 10, Big 12 with six and the Big Ten, Big East and Sun Belt each have three.
  • If you had told me two months ago that Florida would be in line to host a NCAA Regional, I’d have tried to get admitted into a psychiatric hospital because you had clearly lost your mind. But here we are with a Gainesville Regional.
  • I do really think there’s a clear-cut tier of teams that are obvious at-large teams. But once you get down to the final six or eight spots, things start to get murky. The biggest question was Arizona State, who just missed making the field, and should it get in instead of Cal Poly? Or UTRGV? This week, no, but it wouldn’t take but a couple wins in the Big 12 Tournament for that change.
  • There isn't one regional that jumps out as "regional of doom" but quite a few look pretty tough on paper. As an fun exercise, I did the math to figure out the average RPI of teams in each regional and here are those results:
NCAA Baseball predicted regional average RPIs.
NCAA Baseball predicted regional average RPIs. | Taylor Hodges

Before revealing the latest NCAA Baseball Tournament Prediction, here’s my normal reminder:

This isn’t a projection. This is what I think the bracket would look like if the selection committee made its selections today. I use the D1Baseball Top 25 Rankings for the 16 national seeds and use current conference leaders to determine who receives the automatic tournament bids. Also, it seems fair to state that the teams ranked No. 16-25 will earn invites to the tournament. With that disclaimer out of the way, here’s bracket 8.0:

NCAA Baseball Tournament Prediction 9.0

Last Four In: Southern California, Troy, UTRGV, Cal Poly
First Four Out: Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Virginia, Western Kentucky
Next Four Out: Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, Florida Atlantic, Stanford

LSU Tigers take on the Arkansas Razorbacks. Sunday, May 11, 2025.
LSU Tigers take on the Arkansas Razorbacks. Sunday, May 11, 2025. | SCOTT CLAUSE / USATODAY Network / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Baton Rogue Regional

(1) LSU
UTSA*
Southeastern Louisiana*
Bethune-Cookman*

Texas Longhorns catcher Rylan Galvan (6) celebrates making it to second base in the first innin.
Texas Longhorns catcher Rylan Galvan (6) celebrates making it to second base in the first inning as the Longhorns take on the Florida Gators in Austin, May 10, 2025. | Sara Diggins/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Austin Regional

(2) Texas
Dallas Baptist*
UTRGV
Abilene Christian*

North Carolina Tar Heels fans cheer during the fifth inning against the Florida State Seminoles at Charles Schwab Field Omaha
North Carolina Tar Heels fans cheer during the fifth inning against the Florida State Seminoles at Charles Schwab Field Omaha. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Chapel Hill Regional

(3) North Carolina
Northeastern*
Kansas State
Long Island*

Oregon Ducks baseball series vs. Michigan Wolverines April 4, 2025.
Oregon Ducks baseball series vs. Michigan Wolverines April 4, 2025. | Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Eugene Regional

(4) Oregon
Oklahoma
Cal Poly
Nevada*

The Michigan Wolverines play the Arkansas Razorbacks during the Amegy Bank College Baseball Series.
The Michigan Wolverines play the Arkansas Razorbacks during the Amegy Bank College Baseball Series presented by Kubota Weekend 2 at Globe Life Field. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Fayetteville Regional

(5) Arkansas
Kansas
Notre Dame
Holy Cross*

The Florida State Seminoles hosted the Florida Gators at Dick Howser Stadium on Tuesday, March 11, 2025.
The Florida State Seminoles hosted the Florida Gators at Dick Howser Stadium on Tuesday, March 11, 2025. | Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Tallahassee Regional

(6) Florida State
Alabama
Cincinnati
Yale*

The Auburn Tigers play against the Oregon State Beavers during the Amegy Bank College Baseball Series.
The Auburn Tigers play against the Oregon State Beavers during the Amegy Bank College Baseball Series presented by Kubota Weekend 3 at Globe Life Field. | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

Corvallis Regional

(7) Oregon State
TCU
Southern California
San Diego*

Auburn Tigers dugout cheers on their team as Auburn Tigers baseball takes on Mississippi State Bulldogs at Plainsman Park.
Auburn Tigers dugout cheers on their team as Auburn Tigers baseball takes on Mississippi State Bulldogs at Plainsman Park in Auburn, Ala., on Friday, April 25, 2025. | Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Auburn Regional

(8) Auburn
Duke
Troy
Bryant*

The Vanderbilt bench celebrates a home run by Vanderbilt's Brodie Johnston (9) during a college baseball game.
The Vanderbilt bench celebrates a home run by Vanderbilt's Brodie Johnston (9) during a college baseball game between Tennessee and Vanderbilt at Lindsey Nelson Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn., on May 9, 2025. | Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Nashville Regional

(9) Vanderbilt
Louisville
East Tennessee State*
Eastern Illinois*

Georgia's Robbie Burnett (10) celebrates with Daniel Jackson (25) after Burnett hit a home run.
Georgia's Robbie Burnett (10) celebrates with Daniel Jackson (25) after Burnett hit a home run off Vanderbilt pitcher Connor Fennell during the fourth inning of an NCAA college baseball game at Hawkins Field Saturday, April 19, 2025, in Nashville, Tenn. | Mark Zaleski / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Athens Regional

(10) Georgia
West Virginia*
Miami
Rider*

Coastal Carolina University Head Coach Gary Gilmore argues with an umpire during the bottom of the second inning.
Coastal Carolina University Head Coach Gary Gilmore argues with an umpire during the bottom of the second inning of the NCAA baseball Clemson Regional at Doug Kingsmore Stadium in Clemson. | Ken Ruinard-Imagn Images

Conway Regional

(11) Coastal Carolina
NC State
Kentucky
Murray State*

Hattiesburg Regional

(12) Southern Miss
Mississippi State
Xavier
Wright State*

UCLA’s Dean West, left, celebrates his first inning home run with teammate Roman Martin at PK Park in Eugene.
UCLA’s Dean West, left, celebrates his first inning home run with teammate Roman Martin at PK Park in Eugene. | Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Los Angeles Regional

(13) UCLA
UC Irvine
Arizona
USC Upstate*

Clemson pitcher Aidan Knaak hands a veteran a U.S. flag during the middle of the fourth inning at Doug Kingsmore Stadium.
Clemson pitcher Aidan Knaak (19) hands a veteran a U.S. flag during the middle of the fourth inning at Doug Kingsmore Stadium in Clemson, S.C. Friday, April 18, 2025. | Ken Ruinard / staff / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Clemson Regional

(14) Clemson
Tennessee
Connecticut
Kent State*

The Florida Gators watch from the dugout during the first inning as the Longhorns take on the Florida Gators in Austin.
The Florida Gators watch from the dugout during the first inning as the Longhorns take on the Florida Gators in Austin, May 10, 2025. | Sara Diggins/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Gainesville Regional

(15) Florida
Wake Forest
Creighton*
Oral Roberts*

Atlanta Regional

(16) Georgia Tech*
Ole Miss
Rhode Island*
Austin Peay*

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Taylor Hodges
TAYLOR HODGES

Award-winning sports editor, writer, columnist, and photographer with 15 years’ experience offering his opinion and insight about the sports world in Mississippi and Texas, but he was taken to Razorback pep rallies at Billy Bob's Texas in Fort Worth before he could walk. Taylor has covered all levels of sports, from small high schools in the Mississippi Delta to NFL games. Follow Taylor on Twitter and Facebook.

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