2026 March Madness Upset Betting Predictions: Ranking the Most-Likely First Round Upset Picks

March Madness is here! As we fill out our brackets and place our bets for the Round of 64, upsets are at the top of our minds. Not only can a few ill-timed upsets bust your bracket, but if you're on the right side of them, you can cash in big at the betting window.

In this article, the SI Team is going to rank their top 10 upset picks for the opening round on Thursday and Friday. Let's dive into them.

All odds listed in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook

Top 10 March Madness Upset Picks

10) Saint Louis +116 vs. Georgia via Kevin Sweeney

Josh Schertz and Robbie Avila were the snubs of the 2024 NCAA tournament at Indiana State. This time, the Billikens left no doubt, surging to 24–1 (then finishing 28–5) and eventually landing as a No. 9 seed in this year’s Dance.

The obvious pitch for the Billikens to be this year’s March darlings is their shooting. Saint Louis shoots 40.5% as a team from deep, second nationally, and does so on high volume. Four guys shoot 40% or better from deep, including Xavier transfer Trey Green’s ridiculous 47% for his 90 makes. Having a big man in Avila that can really pass with so many elite shooters around him puts incredible pressure on the defense, and athletic cutters like Dion Brown, Kellen Thames and Amari McCottry take advantage of that elite spacing.

Those athletic wings are also a big reason for the Billikens being a top-50 defense on KenPom. This isn’t the biggest team, but Saint Louis does an outstanding job of protecting the paint and forcing teams to settle for tough threes on the perimeter. And with Saint Louis’s depth, Schertz has the ability to really tailor lineups to different matchups. He can play bigger with Paul Otieno at center, smaller with more versatile wings, or lean more into shooting with Ishan Sharma and Brady Dunlap off the bench.

9) TCU +132 vs. Ohio State via Iain MacMillan

TCU is an underrated team coming into the NCAA Tournament. The Horned Frogs finished sixth in the best conference in college basketball this season. They have wins over the likes of Wisconsin, Florida, Texas Tech, and Iowa State, proving they can not only hang with the best teams in the country but also beat them out.

Ohio State has been playing some great basketball down the stretch, but the Buckeyes rank just 174th in defensive efficiency, which is a red flag when it comes to facing a TCU team that ranks 47th in that metric, despite having to play some of the best offenses in the country.

Keep an eye on David Punch of TCU. He's a game-changer that can not only rack up points and rebounds, but he's also an elite presence on defense, averaging 2.0 blocks per game.

8) Hofstra +580 vs. Alabama via Kevin Sweeney

Back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since Jay Wright was coaching on Long Island, the Pride may have what it takes to make noise in the Big Dance after coming out of the CAA tournament as the No. 3 seed.

The biggest reason to believe the Pride could pull an upset or two this week is their tremendous guard play. Junior guard Cruz Davis, who spent the first two years of his career playing for Rick Pitino, is among the nation’s best bucket-getters. He has scored 30-plus points five times this season and is capable of scoring at all three levels. But the star of the Pride’s CAA tournament run was his backcourt mate, diminutive freshman Preston Edmead. Edmead is an incredible shotmaker with elite ability off the dribble. Teams may have one strong perimeter defender to take one of the two out of the game, but it will be hard to slow down both.

Hofstra’s defense is built to protect the paint, something the Pride did well in early season wins over Syracuse and Pittsburgh. With 7-footer Silas Sunday and 6' 10" Victory Onuetu splitting time at center, Speedy Claxton’s team has the size to battle around the rim with Alabama and make life difficult for the Tide around the basket. Their size could also cause Alabama some serious issues on the glass. Hofstra is an excellent offensive rebounding team, an area Alabama struggles.

Remarkably, all 10 losses for the Pride this season have come by eight points or fewer. You can at least expect this Hofstra team to be in it late against the Tide, and once you get that far Hofstra has a real chance at the upset with their guards’ shotmaking ability.

7) Villanova +117 vs. Utah State via Iain MacMillan

San Diego State three years ago was an exception, but the Mountain West has historically struggled in the NCAA Tournament. Let's fade the only Mountain West team in this year's edition of the tournament by betting on the Villanova Wildcats to upset them at +117.

UConn and St. John's were the talk of the Big East this season, and while Villanova may not be on their level, they are still a very good team and were a step above the rest of the conference this season. They're 76th in effective field goal percentage and 90th in defensive efficiency.

When the Wildcats get hot from three, they're tough to beat. Utah State ranks just 178th in opponent 3-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot 33.9% from beyond the arc.

6) Akron +280 vs. Texas Tech via Peter Dewey

The Akron Zips won the MAC Championship to earn a No. 12 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and I think they’re live to pull off an upset in the first round against No. 5-seeded Texas Tech.

The Red Raiders put together a strong regular season, but they lost leading scorer and 2024-25 Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin for the season to a torn ACL. Then Christian Anderson (who will play in the NCAA Tournament) suffered an injury during the Big 12 Tournament.

So, the Red Raiders have a lot working against them heading into this matchup.

Meanwhile, Akron has one of the most potent offenses in the country, ranking seventh in effective field goal percentage, 14th in 3-point percentage and 79th in offensive rebound rate.

While Texas Tech is 20th in KenPom, it has slipped outside the top-25 in adjusted defensive efficiency and is 306th in opponent turnover rate. If the Red Raiders can’t turn the Zips over, they’re going to have to win a shootout in the first round. I think that favors the Zips and their elite shooting offense.

5) Texas A&M +132 vs. Saint Mary's via Iain MacMillan

Saint Mary's always disappoints in the NCAA Tournament, failing to make it to the Sweet 16 in eight straight appearances. Gonzaga being in that conference has caused the other teams in the West Coast Conference to be overhyped, including the Gaels.

Texas A&M is better than its record indicates. The Aggies rank 63rd in the country in effective field goal percentage and 152nd in defensive efficiency, all while playing in an extremely deep SEC. They also rank 55th in effective possession ratio, finding ways to create extra scoring chances through rebounding and turnovers.

The Gaels will disappoint in the Round of 64 once again.

4) High Point +390 vs. Wisconsin via Peter Dewey

If you’re going to get really bold with an upset pick in the first round, the High Point Panthers have an interesting profile – and an elite offense – that may be able to win a shootout with Wisconsin.

The Badgers beat Michigan during the regular season and have a ton of great wins under their belt, but they rank 177th in the country in opponent effective field goal percentage and 324th in opponent turnover rate.

The Panthers are going to thrive in the turnover battle, as they are fourth in the country in turnover rate and fifth in opponent turnover rate this season. They also are 48th in the country in effective field goal percentage.

For as many good wins as Wisconsin has, it also has some weird losses, dropping a game by 14 points to Oregon, 17 points to Ohio State and 30 to Nebraska during Big Ten play. So, the Badgers are gettable on an off shooting night.

Wisconsin has the fifth-highest 3-point rate in the country, but opponents are shooting just 31.9 percent from deep against the Panthers.

Plus, this game is going to be a 10:50 a.m. local time start, which could cause some crazy things to happen (the game is 1:50 p.m. EST, but played in Portland).

3) VCU +116 vs. UNC via Kevin Sweeney

VCU got only a shred of the attention Saint Louis did in the Atlantic 10 this season, but the two ended up tied for the regular-season title, and VCU won the conference tournament. After starting just 11–6, the Rams won 16 of 17 down the stretch to surge into the NCAA tournament and look increasingly like a team no one wants to play.

The major catalysts of the Rams’ improvement is the play of sophomore guards Terrence Hill Jr. and Brandon Jennings. Hill is an elite bucket-getter who takes care of the ball and scores it efficiently, while Jennings is a monster on the defensive end who changes games in certain matchups. Add in highly skilled big Lazar Djokovic and a stable of big wings that have defensive versatility, and you have a group that looks really dangerous at the moment.

VCU has better guards than North Carolina, whose backcourt has been inconsistent all season. The matchup the Rams likely couldn’t solve would have been with likely top-five NBA draft pick Caleb Wilson, but Wilson is out for the season with a broken thumb. VCU has the bodies to throw at Henri Veesaar and looks like a very real live underdog to potentially pull an upset in the first round against the Tar Heels. And if that happens, don’t be shocked if the Rams scare Illinois, too. Jennings is a good potential Keaton Wagler defender, and the Illini have struggled of late.

2) Hawaii +860 vs. Arkansas via Iain MacMillan

It's time to respect the Big West. Hawaii is one of the best defensive teams in the country, ranking eighth in defensive efficiency and 22nd in opponent two-point field goal percentage. That's going to be a huge advantage against an Arkansas team that ranks 202nd in defensive efficiency while also having one of the highest two-point shot rates in the country.

It's not rare to see a team that went on a dark horse run to win their conference tournament to fall short early in the NCAA Tournament. The Razorbacks would fit that bill after going on an unlikely run to win the SEC.

Hawaii is a live upset in the Round of 64.

1) South Florida +190 vs. Louisville via Peter Dewey

Louisville star guard Mikel Brown Jr. is day-to-day ahead of the NCAA Tournament after missing the ACC Tournament, and that makes the South Florida Bulls an interesting upset pick in the first round of this tournament.

South Florida needed to win the AAC to get into the field, but the Bulls have an impressive defensive resume, ranking 40th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. The Bulls are also:

47th in opponent effective field goal percentage
56th in opponent turnover rate
24th in opponent 2-point percentage.

South Florida also loves to push the pace, ranking 15th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric.

Louisville has a pretty strong profile, but the ACC wasn’t super deep this season, as shown by just two teams (Duke and Virginia) receiving better than a No. 6 seed in the tournament.

South Florida would be a must-bet for me if Brown ends up missing the first round.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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