Scouting Analysis: How Would A Rematch Between Louisville And Vanderbilt Baseball Play Out?

If the top two teams in the Nashville Regional face off against each other this weekend at any point, how should the Commodores feel about their rematch with the Cardinals?

Vanderbilt Commodores' Rustan Rigdon (19) throws the ball to first base as Ole Miss Rebels take on Vanderbilt Commodores during the SEC baseball tournament championship game at Hoover Met in Birmingham, Ala., on Sunday, May 25, 2025. | Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In the first week of May, Vanderbilt went to Louisville for its final non-conference game of the regular season, where the Commodores fell 5-4. Vanderbilt surrendered three runs in the bottom of the sixth inning to go trail 5-2 and could not muster up enough offense to complete a comeback.

With Louisville now having to go to Nashville as the No. 2-seed in the Nashville Regional, the bracket is set up that could give top-seeded Vanderbilt an opportunity of revenge over the Cardinals if both teams were to win (or technically lose) its first game in the regional round of the NCAA Tournament.

As the possibility of a rematch between Vanderbilt and Louisville looms, what advantages would the Commodores have this time around and what could Louisville do to take down Vanderbilt again?

Advantages

While it is not shown in the postgame stat sheets, it certainly plays a huge role in sports: momentum. Vanderbilt would have a huge momentum advantage over Louisville if the two teams were to face each other again.

The ‘Dores and the Cardinals enter the tournament trending in polar opposite ways. Vanderbilt is starting its tournament run on an eight-game win streak, including a run to the SEC Tournament Championship. Louisville, on the other hand, goes into the tournament winning just one of its last seven games, including a 10-9 loss to Bellarmine on May 13.

Momentum may not be everything, especially in a setting where starting a new tournament can mean a fresh start for many teams, but it is undeniably something to think about.

Another advantage Vanderbilt would have is an improved offense against a struggling pitching staff. The Commodores ended the regular season and the SEC Tournament with a scorching hot offense, scoring five or more runs in seven of their last eight games. Meanwhile Lousiville has given up an average of 10.2 runs per game over their last five games.

It is unsure who Vanderbilt would send out on mound against Lousiville in the event of a rematch, but it important to point out that in the first game between the two teams, Vanderbilt did not start either of its two usual weekend starters in JD Thompson and Cody Bowker nor did they play two of its more prominent relievers in Sawyer Hawks and Connor Fennell.

Where Things Could Go Wrong

If things did go wrong in a rematch against Lousiville, it would likely be due to the Cardinals’ offense. While Louisville’s pitching has struggled down the stretch, their offense has still given them a chance to win high-scoring games. 

In their last five games, Louisville has still managed to have games where they have scored 9, 14 and 11 runs against opponents. Not to mention, perhaps the best hitter on the roster, Lucas Moore, gave Vanderbilt a tough time in the first game earlier in May.

In the first meeting between the schools, Moore went 2-for-4 and drove in three of the five runs for Louisville, including a two-RBI single and the eventual knockout punch in the bottom of the sixth. As a .373 hitter, it is crucial that Vanderbilt would need to put an extra emphasis on shutting Moore down if the two teams see each other this weekend.