Iowa vs. Vanderbilt Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for ReliaQuest Bowl

Will this be Diego Pavia's last college game?

Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt are favored against Iowa on Wednesday. / Mark Zaleski / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The player who finished second in the 2025 Heisman Trophy race will be back on the gridiron soon. Diego Pavia and No. 14 Vanderbilt are set to take on No. 3 Iowa in the ReliaQuest Bowl on Wednesday. The Commodores will enter the contest as 4.5-point favorites.

Vanderbilt’s push to make a national title run was unsuccessful, but there’s still football to be played. It boasts one of college football’s most prolific passing attacks, but will be up against a Hawkeyes secondary that’s elite in its own right. Can Pavia go out with a bang against an Iowa squad that’s given up just seven passing touchdowns this year?

Here’s our full betting breakdown ahead of kickoff.

Iowa vs. Vanderbilt Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Iowa: +4.5 (-115)
• Vanderbilt: -4.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Iowa: +152
• Vanderbilt: -180

Total: 46.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Iowa vs. Vanderbilt How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, December 31
• Game Time: 12:00 PM EST
• Venue: Raymond James Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Iowa: 8-4
• Vanderbilt: 10-2

Iowa vs. Vanderbilt Key Players to Watch

Iowa

Mark Gronowski: Iowa’s quarterback doesn’t come close to Pavia when it comes to production throwing the football, but he has put a ton of points on the board with his legs. Gronowski has tallied 491 yards and 15 scores on the ground. He’s rushed for a touchdown in all but one of the games he’s appeared in this season. Vanderbilt has given up the second fewest rushing touchdowns (8) in the SEC, though.

Vanderbilt

Diego Pavia: Pavia ascended to another level in 2025. He’s increased his completion percentage from 59.1 percent to 7.1 percent since last year while amassing 3,192 passing yards and 27 passing touchdowns with eight interceptions. Pavia has also totaled a career-high 826 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground.

Iowa vs. Vanderbilt Prediction and Pick

The Commodores have one of the nation’s best records against the spread (9-2-1) and have covered in three straight games. They’ve only failed to win against the spread against No. 13 Texas, No. 9 Alabama, and Utah State.

Iowa isn’t too far off with an 8-3-1 record against the spread. Two of the three teams the Hawkeyes failed to cover against were ranked at the time. However, there’s a clear disparity between these two offenses.

Vanderbilt has a top-10 scoring offense that’s posting 39.2 points per game while shutting down the run. Its pass defense can be taken advantage of, but that’s not a strong suit for Iowa. The Commodores passing attack is far more impressive than the Hawkeyes’ ground game. The favorites can comfortably win by a touchdown or more. 

PICK: Vanderbilt -4.5 (-105 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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