Does Vanderbilt Basketball Still Have Chance to Win SEC Regular Season? Here's What History Says.

NASHVILLE—If this Vanderbilt team didn’t believe it this time a week ago, it learned that things in this league can change rapidly.

As Vanderbilt boarded the plane to Austin to face Texas, it was 16-0 overall, 3-0 in league play and was the odds-on favorite to win the SEC regular season. Life comes at you fast, though. So does SEC play.

Mark Byington’s team is now 16-2 with a 3-2 record in SEC play after a Wednesday loss to Texas and a Saturday loss to Florida. KenPom has the Commodores projected as a six-loss team in conference play, although they’re projected to win all but one–its road game against Tennessee–remaining game on their schedule.

The lack of a truly dominant team in the 2025-26 iteration of the SEC indicates that Vanderbilt isn’t out of the regular season title race, but history suggests that a level of urgency is required from here if Vanderbilt is going to earn the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament.

Vanderbilt basketball is approaching dangerous territory if history indicates anything. | Kasen Holt, Vandy on SI

–2024-25 Auburn: 15-3, two-consecutive losses

–2023-24 Tennessee: 14-4, not more than one-consecutive loss

–2022-23 Alabama: 16-2, not more than one-consecutive loss

–2021-22 Auburn: 15-3, not more than one-consecutive loss

–2020-21 Alabama: 16-2, not more than one-consecutive loss

–2019-20 Kentucky: 15-3, not more than one-consecutive loss

–2018-19 LSU: 16-2, not more than one-consecutive loss

–2017-18 Auburn and Tennessee: 13-5, both lost two-consecutive games

–2016-17 Kentucky: 16-2, not more than one-consecutive loss

–2015-16 Texas A&M and Kentucky: 13-5, Texas A&M lost four-consecutive games, Kentucky did not have more than one-consecutive loss

In the past 10 seasons, the SEC winner has lost two league games or more in a row just three times. Every team has lost two-games or more, but only six league winners have lost three or more games in conference. Three league winners have lost four-games or more.

KenPom has this season’s projected league winner–Florida–projected to lose four games by the time this is all said and done. No team is projected by the model to come within a game of Florida–Vanderbilt and Alabama projected to finish in a tie for second with six losses.

The door is still open for Vanderbilt to win the league’s regular season title–particularly with the variance of Florida’s guards that is likely understated in the league’s standings–but history indicates that it will have to avoid dropping three in a row as it heads to Fayetteville to face No. 17 Arkansas. The Commodores believe they’re capable of starting a resurgence on Tuesday and running with this down the line.

“To an extent,” Nickel said in regard to the idea that there’s positives to take from Saturday. “Our standard is to be the best team in the country, be better than every team in the country is with whatever points you want to point to. We weren't tonight, so we got we get it right.”

Vanderbilt’s first two games coming off of two-consecutive losses a season ago–with Nickel, sophomore guard Tyler Tanner and Devin McGlockton as a part of that team–ended in a win for the Commodores.

As the season wore on and Vanderbilt picked up more difficulty in its strength of schedule, it dropped three-consecutive games two times. Despite its late-season struggles, Vanderbilt’s players still remember what it took to demonstrate some resilience early in the season.

“Just a short-term memory,” Vanderbilt guard Tanner said. “We're gonna lose games, it’s gonna happen in the SEC. So, I mean, we're gonna learn from this, but we're not gonna harp on the negatives or anything.  We're just gonna try to get better and come back and win on Tuesday.”

Vanderbilt will look to use that ideology as it pushes for an SEC regular season title. Its hopes aren’t completely unfounded at this stage, but it’s got some work to do.