Three Keys and a Prediction: Vanderbilt Basketball vs. Tennessee

Vanderbilt basketball faces Tennessee on Saturday. Here's what it's got to do to leave with a win.

Jan 18, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores guard Tyler Tanner (3) drives past Tennessee Volunteers guard Darlinstone Dubar (8) during the first half at Memorial Gymnasium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

NASHVILLE---The rivalry is back on good footing and this is perhaps its best matchup in recent memory.

Vanderbilt is having perhaps its best regular season in program history and Tennessee is a contender to be a high seed in the NCAA Tournament. How could this get any better?

Here's a few keys to a Vanderbilt win and a prediction ahead of Saturday's game.

Defensive rebounding

Tennessee is No. 1 in the country in offensive rebounding. Yes, really. 

That could be the biggest obstacle that Vanderbilt has to clear on Saturday. Perhaps Vanderbilt has better perimeter play than Rick Barnes’ team, but Tennessee’s ability to beat Vanderbilt up on the glass and create extra possessions could change the outlook of this thing. 

Time for Devin McGlockton, AK Okereke and Jalen Washington to buckle up and get on the glass. Vanderbilt doesn’t have to win on the glass, but it’s got to hold its own. 

Make the open shots

Vanderbilt coach Mark Byington said a year ago that Tennessee’s defense is good enough to make you look over your shoulder. This Tennessee defense isn’t quite that elite, but it’s good enough to make Vanderbilt second guess whether it’s actually open or not offensively. 

Tennessee is No. 20 in the country in opponent 3-point efficiency and will make it difficult on Vanderbilt to get open looks consistently. 

Vanderbilt has to make the open ones when it gets them. 

Prevent the Jaylen Carey breakout game

Remember when Jaylen Carey walked up to the table in Vanderbilt’s film room, sat down in a throwback Vanderbilt uniform and delivered perhaps the most compelling sentence of anyone who sat at that table did all season–no offense, Byington. 

It wasn’t all that long ago that Carey made his statement and was beloved in every corner of Memorial Gymnasium. The then-Vanderbilt big man was young, he was a little bit crazy and appeared to possess a rare physicality that nobody else on Vanderbilt’s roster did. In the moments leading up to Carey sitting down at the table, he had just done something that all the best Vanderbilt basketball players do; he beat Tennessee.

Spoiler alert; things have changed since then. Carey and Vanderbilt have since developed some bad blood and will go at it on Saturday in a rivalry matchup. Now, he’s got a chance to come back to Memorial Gymnasium and prove that he’s better off for leaving. 

Prediction: Vanderbilt: 77, Tennessee: 70

KenPom had a good number here at 77-73, particularly with Duke Miles set to return to the lineup on Saturday. Vanderbilt needs to be sharp and do the little things right to do it, but it's favored and appears to have a strong chance to win on Saturday.