Column: It’s Time The College Football World Has a Serious Conversation About Vanderbilt’s Playoff Chances

Conversation about the Commodores' playoff odds have been going on amongst their own fans, but it is time all fans do.

Oct 18, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores tight end Eli Stowers (9) breaks the tack of Louisiana State Tigers linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. (7) during the first half at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

At the beginning of the season, Vanderbilt football had a mission. Not only did it want to improve on last season’s 7-6 record, but it had hopes of being able to compete at the top of the SEC and going on a run into the College Football Playoff.

To the rest of the college football world, it seemed like an outrageous idea. The thought of Vanderbilt football having a shot at potentially being in the SEC Championship Game and the College Football Playoff seemed like a fever dream that was borderline delusional to college football fans around the country.

Of course everyone remembers the viral clip of Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia telling Paul Finebaum, “I think we got the tools offensively and defensively to put our foot forward and win a national championship.”

The video spread like a wildfire and left many fans around the country laughing at Pavia and the Vanderbilt program.

But to Vanderbilt, the quote was the true belief of the program. While everyone else doubted the Commodores throughout the offseason and the early part of this season, the players knew the belief and the capability of the team inside the locker room. As we hit two weeks before the first edition of this season’s College Football Playoff rankings, those hopes do not seem so outrageous after all. Vanderbilt is coming off a win over No. 10 LSU and moved to 6-1. With the win, it jumped up to No. 10 in the AP Top 25 for the first time since 1941.

For the past few weeks now, the Vanderbilt fanbase has been talking about it, but now it is time for all college football fans to talk about it: playoff odds.

With five games remaining, here is Vanderbilt's remaining schedule with odds to win each game, according to ESPN analytics.

Vanderbilt's remaining schedule | @GrahamBaakko / X

Vanderbilt is favored in three games, all at home. The path for Vanderbilt football is actually not that complicated: win the games it is supposed to and just get one more road win either at Texas or at Tennessee.

With three ranked matchups remaining and two of them being on the road, it seems daunting. But as good as Missouri, Texas and Tennessee have been, all three of them each have a vulnerability that Vanderbilt could expose.

For Missouri, if Vanderbilt is able to make the Tigers one-dimensional offensively by taking away the running game, it has a huge advantage to win the game. In the case of Texas, the Longhorns have had offense problems similar to what LSU has been having. Texas also has a terrific defense, but that was exactly what everyone was just talking about with LSU this past weekend.

Not to mention, the win probability against Texas being at just 29 percent is simply disrespectful to Vanderbilt given how Texas has looked this season. 

And in the case of Tennessee, the Volunteers have had major problems defensively. They have allowed 31 or more points in every conference matchup this season while Vanderbilt has been among the best offenses in the sport this season.

Of course, everyone needs to take this one week at a time and not look too far ahead, which head coach Clark Lea and his team has done a great job of all season. But in a 12-team playoff bracket, teams can afford to go 10-2 and make the playoffs. That is all Vanderbilt has to do and it should be in the playoffs, especially going 10-2 in the SEC. That is easier said than done, but it is well within the realm of possibility.

Vanderbilt is able to afford one more loss. But two more losses and the Commodores are going to need to hope for chaos around the country.

The one thing that cannot happen is for Vanderbilt to lose a home game, especially against Auburn or Kentucky. The Commodores are expected to beat Auburn and Kentucky. Losing to either of those teams, or Missouri for that matter means they are forcing themselves into a situation where winning at Texas and Tennessee are both must wins.

Outside of that, Vanderbilt’s path to the playoffs is not a complicated one, and more people should be talking about it. The Commodores control their own destiny, which is exactly what they would have wanted to hear if you told the team this scenario at the start of the season. The path is simple: just win.