Staff Predictions: Vanderbilt Football Vs. NC State

NASHVILLE---It's litmus test time for Vanderbilt football.

Vandy on SI has been on site for every Vanderbilt fall camp practice and preseason press conference to gather information about Clark Lea's sixth Vanderbilt team. All of those days have informed us to make these predictions as Vanderbilt faces NC State in its biggest game to date and looks to move to 3-0 on the season.

Here's our predictions in regard to what will happen when the Commodores take the field Saturday.

Graham Baakko: Vanderbilt 24, NC State 20

Vanderbilt football, NC State football — Sep 12, 2026; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores running back Makhilyn Young (22) breaks the tackle of Delaware Blue Hens cornerback Jaquise Alexander (8) during the second half at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

We really don’t know a ton about what NC State is yet and the same goes for Vanderbilt. But NC State looks like it’s still figuring out its offense after losing so many key pieces over the offseason. At the end of the day, Jared Curtis will deliver on a big throw in the second half to separate Vanderbilt just enough to win the game

Dylan Tovitz: Vanderbilt 31, NC State 28

Vanderbilt football — Vanderbilt cornerback Martel Hight (4) runs the ball against Delaware during the first quarter at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

I heavily considered picking NC State to pull off the upset here, spoiling Jared Curtis’ first collegiate start, but the Nashville native’s second half against Delaware gives me enough confidence that he can lead the offense against Power 4 competition. If Steve Gregory’s defense can come away with a key takeaway and Curtis protects the ball sufficiently, I think the Commodores will squeak out a home victory heading into SEC play.

Mikey Andersen: NC State 28, Vanderbilt 24

I might get flamed for this take, but until I see four quarters of quality defensive play by the Commodores against a power 4 opponent, I don’t feel comfortable picking an offense still trying to find their rhythm. While NC State is no playoff team, they have shown an ability to run the ball consistently, which Vanderbilt is going to have to match in Jared Curtis’ first start. Ultimately, call it “bulletin board material” now, but after the game Vanderbilt’s loss will be nothing more than a standard headline.

Joey Dwyer: Vanderbilt: 27, NC State: 24

This is the hardest game to predict on Vanderbilt's schedule yet. We really don't know how good NC State is or isn't. And, do we really know how good Vanderbilt is?

Vanderbilt will trot out freshman quarterback Jared Curtis for his first college start Saturday and will finally have its first litmus test against a power-five opponent. Industry consensus is that Vanderbilt is more than good enough to be a bowl team in 2026, but that has to come into question if it loses Saturday.

It does appear that Vanderbilt is more talented across the board than NC State, though, and it is at home. It's not out of the question whatsoever that Vanderbilt will run NC State off the field, but it's easy to want to hedge the bet with a score prediction like this because of the way it's played through two weeks. If it does win a close game, that would say something about its maturity and would be a positive indicator in regard to Curtis' development.

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