Three Keys and A Prediction: Vanderbilt Football vs. Alabama

Vanderbilt football looks to upset Alabama in the Crimson Tide's first trip to Nashville since losing to the Commodores in 2024. Can Vanderbilt do it again? Here's what it has to do.

Nov 7, 2026; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback Jared Curtis (2) and running back Sedrick Alexander (28) celebrate after a touchdown against the Mississippi State Bulldogs during the first half at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Wesley Hale-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

NASHVILLE—-For the first time since Vanderbilt football upset No. 1 Alabama, the Crimson Tide are coming to Nashville. Can Vanderbilt pull another miraculous upset, this time against the No. 3 Crimson Tide.

Vanderbilt enters the game 4-5 after a Saturday win over Mississippi State in Starkville while Alabama comes to Nashville in the fallout of a big win over LSU in Baton Rouge. The setup is similar to 2024, and Vanderbilt knows it will have to follow the blueprint that it used to win that game.

“I think there's a lot that we can learn from that experience in this moment, too, where the season hasn't actually gone the way we've envisioned it," Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea said, "But here we are, and I think we're getting closer to that identity showing up.”

Here's what it's going to take for Vanderbilt to leave Saturday with a win and a prediction.

Control the ball

Nov 7, 2026; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores running back Sedrick Alexander (28) runs with the ball against the Mississippi State Bulldogs during the second half at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Wesley Hale-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Vanderbilt nearly doubled up Mississippi State in time of possession on the way to a win and almost certainly would’ve lost if it hadn’t. It’s going to be the same story on Saturday. 

There’s room for Vanderbilt to make Alabama starter Austin Mack uncomfortable if Vanderbilt doesn’t allow him to be on the field much, but it will be challenging to slow him down if he’s able to settle into the game and work with a solid margin for error. 

Vanderbilt isn’t good enough to beat Alabama straight up, even with Mack starting, and has to win the time of possession battle significantly. Expect Vanderbilt to run the play clock down often and try to run the ball for as many yards as possible. That’s really the only style of play that will give it a chance to win the game on Saturday. 

No turnovers and a few that go the other way 

Nov 7, 2026; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback Jared Curtis (2) throws the ball against the Mississippi State Bulldogs during the first half at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Wesley Hale-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The turnover battle has to increase Vanderbilt’s margin for error, not shrink it like it so often has in 2026. 

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Vanderbilt has to avoid turning it over essentially at all if it’s going to win Saturday. It also has to force a few turnovers that position it in the red zone or give it points directly. It’s a big ask, but this is No. 3 Alabama that’s coming to town after all. Vanderbilt beat Alabama in 2024 on the back of a few huge turnovers, and it will have to do it again. 

That’s what happens when a team like Vanderbilt tries to pull off something improbable. Upsets aren’t for everyone. Some miracle plays will have to go Vanderbilt’s way if this is going to be its day. 

A complete performance 

Oct 24, 2026; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores wide receiver Junior Sherrill (0) carries the ball during the fourth quarter against the Kentucky Wildcats at Kroger Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Lea has lamented at the podium that he’s had his team and his program back at times, but that it hasn’t happened as often as he would like. He’s yet to have his team play a full game, or anything close to it, but his group has had four performances good enough to win. 

Vanderbilt can’t do that on Saturday and expect to win. It’s got to have its closest thing to a complete game if it’s going to win, and it may need a complete game in general. 

Lea’s team will have to be sharp, play to its identity, run the ball, limit explosives and put itself in a position to receive a few miracles. Then, maybe it can win on Saturday. 

Prediction: Alabama: 42, Vanderbilt; 17

Oct 24, 2026; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Austin Mack (10) warms up prior to the game against the Texas A&M Aggies at Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Leong-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Nothing is impossible, as Vanderbilt proved in 2024 against Alabama, but this is improbable. Vanderbilt will need to be almost perfect to win this game like it did in 2024 and lightning striking twice isn’t all that probable. 

The biggest challenges will be Vanderbilt finding a way to hold up defensively against an explosive Alabama offense, Vanderbilt’s offensive line holding up against a standout Alabama defensive front and Vanderbilt avoiding the big turnover.

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