Three Keys and a Prediction: Vanderbilt Football vs. Mississippi State
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Vanderbilt football returns to the field this weekend following its bye week on Halloween as it hits the road to take on Mississippi State.
The Commodores have lost five games in a row and are the only team in the SEC to not win a conference game this season. With four games left in the regular season and a 3-5 record, Vanderbilt has no margin for error left as it looks to turn its season around.
What helps Vanderbilt this week is that it is facing a wounded Mississippi State team. The Bulldogs star quarterback, Kamario Taylor, is out for the season with an injury. Since then, Mississippi State has played true freshman quarterback Parker Puckett and former Vanderbilt quarterback AJ Swann.
This weekend presents a golden opportunity for Vanderbilt. Here are three things Vanderbilt has to do to win the game and a prediction for the game.
Find Some Semblance of a Run Game
As Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea said this week, his team does not have to run the ball 40 or more times every game, but his team does have to eliminate the negative runs that get the offense off schedule.
The Commodores have really struggled to run the football this season. Vanderbilt ranks 128th out of 138 FBS teams in rushing offense with 106 yards per game. That is not a winning recipe and it never will be.
But, if either Sedrick Alexander or MK Young are able to get going even a little bit, it would do so much good for the rest of the offense by taking pressure off five-star freshman quarterback Jared Curtis and the rest of the offense.
Contain Fluff Bothwell
Defensively, this is the biggest key, especially with no Kamario Taylor playing the rest of the season. Mississippi State running back Fluff Bothwell is the biggest offensive threat and seems to be available for the game this weekend.
When Bothwell gets going, he becomes very difficult to stop. In games where he has carried the ball more than nine times, he has run for over 100 yards all but once. Bothwell has run for over 100 yards four times this season in the six full games he has played in.
When Bothwell cannot get going, Mississippi State’s offense has struggled mightily without Taylor at quarterback.
Maintain a Defensive Identity
The past couple games, Vanderbilt has had a similar story on defense. The first couple of possessions, it looks like the defense Lea thought he had going into the season. Then, things begin to fall apart in the late stages of the first half.
That cannot happen again if Vanderbilt wants to snap its losing streak. It must maintain a defensive intensity throughout all four quarters. It has to put the pieces together and play a complete game rather than play a good 20 minutes.
The Commodores may be playing against a familiar foe if Swann plays for Mississippi State. If Vanderbilt maintains an identity on defense, it should keep Swann in check.
Prediction: Vanderbilt 23, Mississippi State 20
Vanderbilt is reeling, but it is coming off a bye week and knows it needs to win just to feel good about itself. The key here is that Mississippi State has yet to show it can be effective and dangerous offensively without Taylor. Bothwell will get his yards and help put together a couple scoring drives, but somewhere deep down the talent that Vanderbilt has on defense with its veterans is still there.
This week is a perfect time for the talent Vanderbilt’s leaders have shown in the past to finally return this weekend. It is a close one, but Vanderbilt ends its winning streak Saturday.
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Graham Baakko is a writer for Vanderbilt Commodores On SI, primarily covering football, basketball and baseball. Graham is a recent graduate from the University of Alabama, where he wrote for The Crimson White, WVUA-FM, WVUA 23 as he covered a variety of Crimson Tide sports. He also covered South Carolina athletics as a sportswriting intern for GamecockCentral.
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