Three Keys And A Prediction: Vanderbilt Football Vs. NC State
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NASHVILLE—It's litmus test time for Vanderbilt football.
Vanderbilt's season sits at an early crossroads of sorts as it faces its first power-five opponent in NC State at FirstBank Stadium on Saturday. If Vanderbilt wins, it would have stock as desireable as it's had at any point in 2026. If it doesn't, though, it could indicate that there may be some trouble ahead of it.
Here's three keys and a prediction ahead of Vanderbilt's big matchup.
Get the running game going
Vanderbilt averaged just 2.6 yards per carry against Delaware and only generated a few runs over 10 yards over the course of the day. Sedrick Alexander finished with 39 yards, MK Young finished with 38 and Curtis finished with one on eight carries–which makes it sound worse than it was because those numbers aren’t adjusted for sacks.
Perhaps Vanderbilt gets a pass for that one because Delaware was all but daring Curtis to beat it through the air, and he did, but Vanderbilt will have to help Curtis more in the running game and short passing game to take the pressure off of him on Saturday.
Curtis broke out a week ago, but he can’t win this potential statement game by himself.
Make CJ Bailey one dimensional
Need proof that this is a real key? Ask Vanderbilt linebacker and leader Nick Rinaldi.
“We’ve faced good quarterbacks,” Rinaldi said Tuesday. “It’s just about containing him, collapsing the pocket, making him one-dimensional. That’ll be a big deal in this game.”
Bailey threw for 3,105 yards last season and had 25 passing touchdowns to nine interceptions in 2025. He also added 215 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. He’s capable of beating Vanderbilt either way, but it could be in trouble if it can’t contain his arm or his legs.
In Bailey, Vanderbilt is seeing the best quarterback it has at any point in 2026 and will have to bring it as a result.
Avoid the big turnover
Curtis hasn’t made the big mistake as Vanderbilt’s quarterback yet, and this wouldn’t be the time for him to do it.
Vanderbilt can very conceivably beat NC State, but its margins are significantly smaller than they were against Austin Peay and Delaware. It could get away with a few turnovers in those games–although it only turned it over once–but it may not be able to when NC State comes to town to give it a real litmus test.
As much as Vanderbilt needs Curtis to push the ball down the field and give it some explosiveness offensively, it needs him to manage the game and the operation in a way that won’t often put the ball in harms’ way.
How well Curtis does that could be the difference on Saturday.
Prediction: Vanderbilt: 27, NC State: 24
This is the hardest predicition of any game that Vanderbilt's played at this point.
We don't know what NC State is. We really don't know what Vanderbilt is, either. Curtis hasn't yet started a game and Vanderbilt wasn't all that convincing in its two buy games. Betting on Vanderbilt beating NC State is betting on its second-half performance against Delaware being more the norm than the stunning outlier.
Why can't it be the norm, though? It's the Curtis era, time for Vanderbilt to have some fun. If Vanderbilt wins a close game, that's a real positive indicator in regard to his development.
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Joey Dwyer is the lead writer on Vanderbilt Commodores On SI. He found his first love in college sports at nearby Lipscomb University and decided to make a career of telling its best stories. He got his start doing a Notre Dame basketball podcast from his basement as a 14-year-old during COVID and has since aimed to make that 14-year-old proud. Dwyer has covered Vanderbilt sports for three years and previously worked for 247 Sports and Rivals. He contributes to Seth Davis' Hoops HQ, Basket Under Review and Mainstreet Nashville.
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