Three Keys and a Prediction: Vanderbilt vs. Iowa

TAMPA---Vanderbilt likely wouldn’t have drawn it up this way, but its week in Tampa will culminate on Wednesday as it faces Iowa in the ReliaQuest Bowl. It pleaded to the College Football Playoff committee, the Heisman Trophy committee and hoped to have Stowers in action, yet here it is with all three of its wishes crushed. No national championship run, a mortal quarterback and a star tight end on the sideline in street clothes will be the reality for this group on Wednesday afternoon.

Those things don’t have to define it, though. Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea is determined to make sure they don’t. That would be unfair to this group and what they’ve accomplished. That would be unfair to the group that won’t be able to strap it up again at this level following Wednesday’s game. As a result, Vanderbilt is acting as if it’s put all of its previous aspirations behind it.

Here's what it's got to do to leave Tampa with a win.

Make Iowa one dimensional offensively

Iowa’s Joe Moore Award winning offensive line is the lifeblood of its offense and has allowed it to win without a potent passing attack. Vanderbilt’s front seven will be perhaps its most important unit on Wednesday as it looks to slow down the Hawkeyes’ run game.

If Vanderbilt can hold Iowa to a reasonable amount of yards on the ground and yards per carry, it’s a near lock to hold the Hawkeyes down offensively. Iowa’s receiver room and tight end room both leave plenty to be desired as does its passing attack as a whole–which is led by quarterback Mark Gronowski, who hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards in a game this season.

Time to see if it can answer the call.

Ball control

It feels like 2024 again.

Vanderbilt isn’t likely to make this thing into a shootout, if Iowa’s profile indicates anything. It’s going to have to win this one like it won games a season ago, with a ball control offense and a small margin for error. Every possession matters for this group on Wednesday afternoon, it’s got to cash in when it’s in the red zone and it’s got to take care of the ball.

Vanderbilt doesn’t need to score 30+ points to win on Wednesday afternoon, but it’s got to find a way to win in the margins offensively and to buy itself some margin defensively. It likely won’t be all that pretty, but this group has a chance to seal a special season with a win if it stays true to character.

Don’t play from behind

Iowa forcing Vanderbilt to play from behind would make things far more difficult than they need to be.

Perhaps a better way to put it is that if Vanderbilt can make Iowa play from behind, that would all but seal this thing. Iowa wants this thing to be low scoring and doesn’t want to have to rely on its passing game to come back from down a significant amount.

Vanderbilt does appear to be better equipped to come back.

Prediction: Vanderbilt: 28, Iowa: 21

It feels like fate for this Vanderbilt team to end its storybook journey with a win. Betting against them hasn’t been a good idea all season, so why do it now.

This thing likely won’t be pretty, but the odds and the way this season has gone indicates that fate will allow this Vanderbilt team to be out there celebrating after one final signature win.