Vanderbilt Football Has Small Margin For Error After Texas Loss

Vanderbilt football now has to win out in order to find itself in the College Football Playoff field.

Nov 1, 2025; Austin, Texas, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores head coach Clark Lea watches game play during the second half against the Texas Longhorns at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Say goodbye to margin for error, Vanderbilt. 

If it left Texas with a win on Saturday, the path would’ve laid itself out for this group to find its way to the College Football Playoff. It would’ve had to finish the season 2-1 and could’ve afforded a loss to Tennessee in Knoxville as long as it won as favorites against Auburn and Kentucky at home. After its 34-31 loss to Texas, no longer can it take comfort in its path forward. Comfort doesn’t exist for this program anymore. 

"I don't think we played well," Lea said. "They beat us. They did a really good job of protection. We just didn't win. In our program, to say that we weren't the hardest playing team on the field hurts me."

Now it’s difficult, this team can seldom make a mistake. It certainly can’t lose another game the rest of the way if it wants to achieve the goal that it set out for in the preseason. 

Seemingly every member of Vanderbilt’s program that has spoken publicly has declared that it has national championship aspirations. Some have laughed at them for the way they’ve spoken, but they’ve never deviated from their goal. The same one that Diego Pavia declared in the preseason was declared by Vanderbilt receiver Richie Hoskins after Vanderbilt’s first loss to No. 10 Alabama. 

It doesn’t appear as if this program is out of the mix after this loss, either.

"We got every single goal that we want still in front of us," Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia said postgame. "We just got to win out. So keep that in mind. Tomorrow we got practice, so we'll bring the energy and be ready to go."

Vanderbilt entered Saturday in ABC’s Greg McElroy’s playoff projection as the No. 11 seed with No. 6 Ole Miss as its opponent. His broadcast partner Sean McDonough was higher on the Commodores and had them ranked No. 8 in a matchup with No. 9 Georgia Tech. Each of those projections, as well as seemingly every other one, will eliminate Vanderbilt after Saturday’s loss. 

The idea that Vanderbilt wouldn’t be in the field if the season ended today is one that hasn’t been all that familiar to it recently, but it doesn’t mean that its College Football Playoff hopes are over by any stretch. Its odds may go down on each of the analytics sites, but it’s still among the teams that control their own destiny. 

Vanderbilt has three top 15 wins on its rèsumè and has proven that it’s worthy of consideration. It’s got to finish this thing strong if it’s going to find a way into the College Football Playoff. The good news for it; that’s not impossible. 

“We still have everything out in front of us,” Lea said as if to rally the troops after Vanderbilt’s loss to No. 20 Texas.