College Football Upset Pick for College Football Playoff Semifinals (Bet on the Ducks?)

Iain MacMillan | Jan 7, 2026

Bet on Oregon to upset Indiana in the College Football Playoff Semifinal. / Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

We have a couple of fun games on tap for this week's College Football Playoff semifinals. On one side of the bracket, we have two Cinderella teams who are trying to complete an improbable championship run. In the other semifinal, we have two Big Ten teams that have been highly touted as two of the best teams in the country all season.

Both games have a spread of 3.5 points, but can either underdog pull off the upset and advance to the National Championship? Let's take a look.

College Football Playoff Semifinal Upset Pick

• Oregon +154 vs. Indiana via FanDuel Sportsbook

Oregon vs. Indiana Prediction

In my weekly picks article, I wrote about why I'm backing Oregon to pull off the upset on Friday night:

I've been very high on this Oregon team throughout the season. No one has really taken them as a legitimate national championship contender, but I think the Ducks are very much live as underdogs in this matchup. The Ducks are third in the country in adjusted net EPA per play, one spot above Indiana, which comes in at fourth.

Not only are they one of the best teams in the country overall, but the Ducks' defense is the one remaining unit that has a chance to shut down the Heisman Trophy winner. Oregon ranks eighth in opponent dropback EPA and ninth in opponent dropback success rate, allowing just 5.3 yards per pass attempt, which is the third-lowest mark in college football. I'll take the Ducks to pull off the upset.

Pick: Oregon +154

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