Who’s to Blame for Vanderbilt’s Lack of Offense – According to the Stats
A football season doesn’t become a “disappointment” magically. Vanderbilt went from a 10-2 season to likely ending under .500 in the span of one year, and specific offensive player stats can help tell this story.
Today we’ll compare the per-game QB stats from Pavia and Curtis, along with analyzing the efficiency of the rushing attack, and the production of the team's top receiver Junior Sherill.
Obviously, Vanderbilt hasn’t found as much success this year. But by comparing statistics, we can see the specific areas the team is lacking in, and will no-doubt need to improve over the offseason.
Throughout this research, it is clear the entire offense has taken a statistical step back, without the efficiency that is required for an SEC team to be successful. The result – a lackluster record and a fan base looking for who to blame. Perhaps stats can help fans understand where to point the finger.
Quarterback Play:
No one expected Jared Curtis to come in and perform like Diego Pavia. But he was expected to be better than this. While flashy highlights have improved the opinions of Curtis’ future among the Vanderbilt faithful, his stats per-game compared to the former Heisman-contender show that there is a long way to go for the young signal caller. He has been worse in every major category – and not even 40-yard bombs to Junior Sherrill can overshadow his touchdown to interception ratio.
Passing Yards per Start: Pavia - 272.2 yards, Curtis - 243 yards
Completion Percentage: Pavia - 70.6%, Curtis - 62.7%
Touchdown to Interception Ratio: Pavia - 29/8 (3.63 TDs/INT), Curtis - 6/7 (0.85 TDs/INT)
Rushing Offense:
This one is damning. There’s no surprise the Vanderbilt rushing attack has taken a step back, with a less-experienced offensive line and a new QB who’s legs aren’t his superpower like the signal caller of old (Pavia led the team in rushing on his way to a Heisman bid). But the lack of efficiency is notable, and if you’ve watched the games, stats aren’t necessary to know the rushing game has been abandoned at times this season. Maybe for good reason.
Yards per Carry across the Entire Offense: 2025 - 5.6 YPC, 2026 - 3.6 YPC
Rushing Touchdowns per Game: 2025 - 2.7 TDs/Game, 2026 - 1.57 Tds/Game
Quarterback Rushing Stats: Pavia - 862 yards (5.2 YPC) and 10 Touchdowns, Curtis - 144 yards (2.6 YPC) and 2 Touchdowns
Vandy’s WR1 – Junior Sherrill:
This man is undoubtedly one of Vanderbilt’s real bright spots this season (and shoutout to the animal CJ Heard). Not only is he getting open more this season, garnering more targets as he gets separation off the line. He’s also taking advantage of the additional opportunities, becoming a consistent staple of the offense that WILL produce catches, yards, and often an explosive touchdown.
Some say the NFL stands for “Not For Long”, but that might be applicable to Sherrill’s remaining time in the SEC as well. I wish it was certain that he’d come back next year and continue to help Curtis’ development, but if this is the last year we see Sherrill in the Gold & Black, we might as well enjoy the show.
Targets per Game: 2025 - 5.9 TPG, 2026 - 8.7 TPG
Receptions per Game: 2025 - 4.2 REC (Eight games with less than 4 catches), 2026 - 5.9 REC (Zero games with less than 4 catches)
Average Length of Touchdown: 2025 - 19.6 yards, 2026 - 34.75 yards
Even if the stats put Vanderbilt’s struggles into perspective, they don’t make the pill of this season easier to swallow. But maybe they shine a light on the fact that one man is not to blame. The entire offense has taken a step back, and aside from Sherrill, probably should have come into this season with more realistic expectations.
The coaching staff knows the College Football Playoffs were just one game away a year ago, before the team tumbled down the cliff inches away from the summit. The fans and students know it too, believe me. The statistics provide numerical measurements in the areas of need, like rungs on a ladder waiting to be climbed. Now it’s about getting on their feet, and back to that mentality of ascension.
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Mikey attends Vanderbilt University, where he’s covered football and men's basketball games for the VandyRadio and Hustler newspaper. He discovered his love for athletics growing up in Montana, and runs a fantasy football podcast when he’s not busy skiing or cliff jumping.