Oklahoma vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 8

The Mississippi State Bulldogs have dropped out of the top-25 this season after back-to-back losses to Alabama and LSU, and they have an even bigger concern facing them in Week 8.

Mississippi State is a home underdog against the 3-3 Oklahoma Sooners, as quarterback Kamario Taylor (right foot, turf toe) did not play in Week 7 and appears to be on the wrong side of questionable for Week 8. If Taylor were to play, it’s likely that this line would move in favor of the Bulldogs on Saturday.

Oklahoma upset Texas in the Red River Rivalry earlier this month, but a three-interception game from quarterback John Mateer doomed them against the Kentucky Wildcats in Week 7. The Sooners have one of the best defenses in the country (No. 1 in success rate, No. 2 in adjusted EPA/Play), yet they are a .500 team in a loaded SEC.

Both of these teams are long shots to make the College Football Playoff, and the Bulldogs are basically drawing dead if Taylor doesn’t play. They were shut out by LSU in Week 7 to fall to 4-2 this season.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this SEC showdown in Week 8.

Oklahoma vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Oklahoma -3.5 (-102)
Mississippi State +3.5 (-118)

Moneyline

Oklahoma: -166
Mississippi State: +140

Total

46.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Oklahoma vs. Mississippi State How to Watch

Date: Saturday, Oct. 24
Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
Venue: SEC Network
How to Watch (TV): Davis Wade Stadium
Oklahoma record: 3-3
Mississippi State record: 4-2

Oklahoma vs. Mississippi State Key Player to Watch

John Mateer, Quarterback, Oklahoma

Can the Sooners really trust Mateer to win them games?

The senior quarterback has nine touchdown passes and seven picks in the 2026 season, and he was picked off three times in the loss to Kentucky. After rushing for 23 touchdowns in the 2024 and 2025 season combined, Mateer has yet to find the end zone on the ground through six games.

The Bulldogs are far from an elite defense (121st in success rate, 91st in adjusted EPA/Play), but can Mateer truly take advantage of that on the road? So, he’s shown he’s too erratic to expect this Sooners offense to dominate a game.

Oklahoma vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick

Taylor’s injury is the key in this game, and it may be tough for him to come back from turf toe after sitting out the loss to LSU.

Parker Puckett wasn’t ready for that moment, completing just 16 of his 26 passes for 121 yards and a pick as the Bulldogs were shut out. Taylor is one of the best quarterbacks in college football, and the drop off from him is clearly significant.

Oklahoma has the No. 2 defense in the country in adjusted EPA/Play, so this is a brutal matchup for the Bulldogs if they remain without their starting quarterback in Week 8.

Meanwhile, the Sooners offense has been one of the worst in the country, ranking outside the top-100 in EPA/Pass, EPA/Rush and third/fourth down success rate. The Sooners are the ideal UNDER team, sitting at No. 107 in the country in offensive success rate and No. 1 in defensive success rate.

Mateer has been extremely volatile with turnovers in the 2026 season, and the Sooners have been unable to run the ball (128th in EPA/Rush) to support him.

If Taylor sits, I expect this to be a very low-scoring game in Week 8.

Pick: UNDER 46.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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