Game Preview and Final Score Prediction for No. 16 Virginia vs No. 20 Louisville

The Virginia Cavaliers are gearing up for a tough matchup tonight against Louisville.

Jan 10, 2026; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers guard Chance Mallory (2) drives to the basket past Stanford Cardinal guard Jeremy Dent-Smith (25) in the second half at John Paul Jones Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The Virginia Cavaliers have not been shying away from challenges on the court this season — they've been doing anything but. However, their upcoming opponents will present great obstacles that can either make or break Ryan Odom's program.

Tonight, the Cavaliers will be taking on their first ranked opponent of the season, the Louisville Cardinals. Right now, UVA is riding 14-2 overall and stands at 3-1 in conference play. Their record has pushed them to No. 16 in the AP Top 25 as of this week, while the Cardinals landed at No. 20 and 12-4 overall. UVA may have the stronger numbers, but that doesn't mean tonight's meeting will come easy.

While Virginia is 14-7 all-time against Louisville, the Cardinals claimed victory at their last matchup in January 2025 by a final score of 81-67. Now is the time for the Cavaliers to redeem themselves, but there's one key player they must keep an eye on.

UVA Must Focus on Ryan Conwell

Jan 6, 2026; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard Ryan Conwell (3) shoots against Duke Blue Devils guard Dame Sarr (7) during the second half at KFC Yum! Center. Duke defeated Louisville 84-73. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

Louisville senior guard Ryan Conwell is likely to generate the most attention on the court tonight. The 6-foot-4, 215-pound veteran currently leads the Cardinals with an average of 19.9 points per game and comes in at No. 6 in terms of scoring in the ACC. Conwell is a physical player and is known for his quick offensive approach. The Cavaliers are bound to have their hands full with him.

Fortunately, Virginia has been having noticeable improvements on defense, which will be imperative to tonight's game. Ahead of the game, Odom sat down with the media to discuss what he program is preparing for. As he noted:

“Yeah, I think you just have to get out on their shooters without fouling and get out and make sure that you're able to still be in gaps. You have to do both because they're really good at driving to the basket and finishing, you know, at the rim. They have multiple finishers, and so you can't just sell out to guarding the three because they'll kill you at two. So it's one of those games where you have to do both, and you have to make sure that the contest is of high quality, and then you finish with a rebound, and while realizing that they're relentless, you know, in the way that they offensive rebound. So it's going to be a big challenge even if we do force misses to come up with the ball.” 

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Cardinals are a 3.5-point favorite to win tonight, with the over/under set at 154.5. This means that the Cavaliers are an underdog, but the margin is quite small — there's still a chance for UVA to upset Louisville. I would expect this game to finish with a tight score, but with Virginia's pattern of pulling away in the second half, not all hope is lost.

Final Score Prediction: Louisville 70 - Virginia 65

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