Projecting the Men's College Basketball AP Top 25: Michigan State Rises, Purdue Plummets

The top three will remain the same but there could be a healthy amount of change otherwise in the AP Top 25 men's college basketball poll.

The Spartans have now won four straight games. | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

The men’s college basketball regular season is nearing its end, and conference tournaments are around the corner.

The top three teams in the AP Top 25 sure played like it, as the likes of Duke, Arizona and Michigan handled their business this week, going a combined 6-0 in their games, three of which came against ranked opponents.

After that, the voters are sure to provide some surprises in this week’s poll. In the latest trends, Florida and Michigan State are set to continue their respective climbs up the rankings after perfect weeks, while Purdue is set to plummet on the heels of a two-loss week. Meanwhile, Texas Tech and North Carolina kept on winning without their two star forwards, JT Toppin and Caleb Wilson, respectively.

Let’s take a look at how the poll could shake out after the voters have their say.

Predicting AP Top 25 Men’s College Basketball Poll

1. Duke Blue Devils
Previous Ranking: 1
Upcoming Schedule: March 2 at NC State, March 7 vs. North Carolina

For the first time since Week 14, the poll has a repeat No. 1. The Blue Devils started the week by giving poor Notre Dame its worst beatdown since a loss to the “Chicago First Regiment” in 1898. Then, Duke convincingly knocked off ACC rival and No. 11 Virginia by 26 points on Saturday, capping off a carefree week for the program.

2. Arizona Wildcats
Previous Ranking: 2
Upcoming Schedule: March 2 vs. Iowa State, March 7 at Colorado

The Wildcats went 3-0 without star freshman Koa Peat, then decisively defeated No. 14 Kansas in Peat’s return to the court. As such, Arizona is locked and loaded for the Big 12 tournament with two games remaining on its regular season schedule.

3. Michigan Wolverines
Previous Ranking: 3
Upcoming Schedule: March 5 at Iowa, March 8 vs. Michigan State

After seeing its 11-game winning streak snapped by Duke last week, Michigan responded exactly the way Coach Dusty May could have hoped. A 10-point win over Minnesota, followed by a 14-point drubbing of No. 10 Illinois in a nationally-televised affair. A rematch against rival Michigan State to close the regular season will be fun.

4. UConn Huskies
Previous Ranking: 5
Upcoming Schedule: March 7 at Marquette

Dan Hurley’s Huskies romped No. 15 St. John’s, somehow holding their Big East rival without a field goal in the game’s final 17:28. Then, UConn survived a scare from Seton Hall in a tight victory on an emotional Senior Day for the Huskies. Such a week warrants a jump back into the top four.

5. Florida Gators
Previous Ranking: 7
Upcoming Schedule: March 3 vs. Mississippi State, March 7 at Kentucky

At the start of February, the defending-champion Gators were outside the Top 15 in the AP poll. Riding a nine-game winning streak, Florida has since cracked the Top 10 and is poised to join the Top five for the first time since the poll’s first week. The Gators’ latest impressive feat? A 34-point drubbing of No. 20 Arkansas.

6. Iowa State Cyclones
Previous Ranking: 4
Upcoming Schedule: March 2 at Arizona, March 7 vs. Arizona State

Iowa State won’t fall too far thanks to its Feb. 16 head-to-head win over Houston and victory over Utah to open this week. But make no mistake. The Cyclones are going to drop in the poll after an 82-73 loss to a JT Toppin-less Texas Tech team that rained down 14 three-pointers at Hilton Coliseum, where Iowa State lost for the first time since last season.

7. Houston Cougars
Previous Ranking: 5
Upcoming Schedule: March 4 vs. Baylor

The week appeared headed in the wrong direction, as Houston lost its third straight game on Monday against Kansas. But the Cougars righted the ship with a 40-point win over Colorado on Saturday. Houston has two winnable conference games remaining on its regular-season schedule before the Big 12 tournament.

8. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Previous Ranking: 12
Upcoming Schedule: March 3 at UCLA, March 8 vs. Iowa

In a week where many teams outside of the top three lost, Nebraska was not one of them. After losing at least one game in four consecutive weeks, the Cornhuskers finally authored a perfect week with double-digit wins over Maryland and USC. The voters are likely to reward Fred Hoiberg’s bunch for that.

9. Michigan State Spartans
Previous Ranking: 13
Upcoming Schedule: March 5 vs. Rutgers, March 8 at Michigan

Tom Izzo’s Spartans are one of the biggest risers of the week, having scored a couple of road wins this week, the biggest of which was a 76-74 win at No. 8 Purdue. After an uneven February, Michigan State, winners of four straight, is rounding into form at the right time.

10. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Previous Ranking: 10
Upcoming Schedule: March 3 vs. TCU, March 7 at BYU

This is probably too high a rise for the Red Raiders, but hey, let’s get bold. Texas Tech, without its best player in JT Toppin, went into Hilton Coliseum and overwhelmed No. 4 Iowa State with an inside-outside approach. The Red Raiders led by as many as 20 points en route to the 82-73 win. They don’t have as high a ceiling without Toppin, but Saturday proved that this team will be a very tough out regardless.

11. Illinois Fighting Illini
Previous Ranking: 10
Upcoming Schedule: March 3 vs. Oregon, March 8 at Maryland

12. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Previous Ranking: 9
Upcoming Schedule: March 9 vs. TBD (WCC tournament)

13. Purdue Boilermakers
Previous Ranking: 8
Upcoming Schedule: March 4 at Northwestern, March 7 vs. Wisconsin

14. Kansas Jayhawks
Previous Ranking: 14
Upcoming Schedule: March 3 at Arizona State, March 7 vs. Kansas State

15. Alabama Crimson Tide
Previous Ranking: 17
Upcoming Schedule: March 3 at Georgia, March 7 vs. Auburn

16. Virginia Cavaliers
Previous Ranking: 11
Upcoming Schedule: March 3 vs. Wake Forest, March 7 vs. Virginia Tech

17. North Carolina Tar Heels
Previous Ranking: 18
Upcoming Schedule: March 3 vs. Clemson, March 7 at Duke

18. St. John's Red Storm
Previous Ranking: 15
Upcoming Schedule: March 3 vs. Georgetown, March 6 at Seton Hall

19. Saint Mary's Gaels
Previous Ranking: NR
Upcoming Schedule: March 9 vs. TBD (WCC tournament)

20. Miami (Ohio) RedHawks
Previous Ranking: 21
Upcoming Schedule: March 3 vs. Toledo, March 6 at Ohio

21. Kentucky Wildcats
Previous Ranking: NR
Upcoming Schedule: March 3 at Texas A&M, March 7 vs. Florida

22. Arkansas Razorbacks
Previous Ranking: 20
Upcoming Schedule: March 4 vs. Texas, March 7 at Missouri

23. Saint Louis Billikens
Previous Ranking: 23
Upcoming Schedule: March 4 vs. Loyola Chicago, March 7 at George Mason

24. BYU Cougars
Previous Ranking: 19
Upcoming Schedule: March 3 at Cincinnati, March 7 vs. Texas Tech

25. Tennessee Volunteers
Previous Ranking: 22
Upcoming Schedule: March 3 at South Carolina, March 7 vs. Vanderbilt

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