Has Virginia basketball closed the gap on Duke?

Reloaded Blue Devils remain the biggest obstacle to Cavaliers' chances in the ACC

Feb 28, 2026; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers forward Thijs De Ridder (28) shoots over Duke Blue Devils center Patrick Ngongba II (21) during the first half at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

For most of the past four decades, Duke has been the primary obstacle in Virginia's quest to ascend to the top of the Atlantic Coast Conference men's basketball hierarchy.

The Cavaliers have enjoyed scattered success, including a 72-63 victory over the Blue Devils in the 2014 ACC tournament final. But that's been the exception rather than the rule; even in their 2019 national championship season, they dropped both regular-season meetings to the Blue Devils.

Former Virginia coach Pete Gillen once summed up his program's plight succinctly: "Duke is Duke. They're on TV more than 'Leave it to Beaver.' "

That was before every team's every game was televised. (And if you're unfamiliar with the Beav, ask your parents. "Leave it to Beaver" was its generation's "Big Bang Theory," with reruns always on somewhere).

But we digress. Virginia fans have reason to be optimistic after coach Ryan Odom retained every potential returning player from last season's 30-6 squad and bolstered the roster with some talented transfers. The Cavaliers figure to be ranked in every preseason Top 25 poll.

Will it be enough, though, to close the gap with the Blue Devils?

Comparing the two teams

Mar 22, 2026; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Ryan Odom reacts in the first half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Duke swept last season's meetings, steamrolling the Cavaliers 77-51 at Cameron Indoor Stadium in January before eking out a 74-70 victory in the ACC tournament championship game. The Devils have won six of the last seven matchups overall. For all the Cavaliers' achievements, they were clearly the league's second-best team, both during the regular season and the postseason.

Three members of that Duke team were subsequently picked in the NBA draft: power forward Cameron Boozer (No. 3 overall by Memphis), guard Isaiah Evans (No. 33 by Brooklyn), and forward Maliq Brown (No. 44 by San Antonio). Virginia lost backup center Ugonna Onyenso (picked 53rd by Houston and eventually traded to Detroit), plus guards Malik Thomas, Jacari White, and Dallin Hall.

While Odom was busy retaining the core of his rotation, Duke's Jon Scheyer replenished his roster with the nation's top-ranked high school recruiting class, which included three of the nation's top 12 prospects: power forward Cameron Williams (No. 2 overall), point guard Deron Rippey Jr. (No. 10), and small forward Bryson Howard (No. 12).

Scheyer also signed 7-footers Maxime Meyer and Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, the latter the son of former Georgetown big man Ruben and added a transfer class that includes guard John Blackwell, who averaged 19 points per game last season at Wisconsin. They join a returning nucleus led by big man Patrick Ngongba, small forward Dame Sarr and Cayden Boozer, Cameron's twin.

Duke and Virginia, along with a restocked Louisville squad and possibly a new-look North Carolina team, will enter the season as ACC favorites. But are the Cavaliers on any more equal footing with the Blue Devils than they were a year ago?

It's a complicated answer.

In sheer talent and size, no. In many recent seasons -- even on Tony Bennett's best teams -- the Cavaliers didn't have more than one player who would have started for Duke. This year, aside from De Ridder, it's hard to name one.

Williams is a legitimate candidate to become Duke's third consecutive freshman national player of the year, following Cooper Flagg and Cameron Boozer. Rippey and Howard are considered talented enough to crack the starting lineup immediately, and Boumtje Boumtje was reportedly very impressive playing for the U.S. Under-17 national team at the world championships.

Scheyer might have his deepest and biggest team since he took over from Mike Krzyzewski -- and make no mistake, as he enters his fifth season, this is now clearly his program.

Williams is a legitimate candidate to become Duke's third consecutive freshman national player of the year, following Cooper Flagg and Cameron Boozer. Rippey and Howard are considered talented enough to crack the starting lineup immediately, and Boumtje Boumtje was reportedly very impressive playing for the U.S. Under-17 national team at the world championships. Williams, Ngongba, and Sarr are projected as 2027 first-round NBA draft picks.

Odom doesn't have that luxury, although Thijs De Ridder and Johann Grunloh have attracted the attention of pro scouts.

A couple of advantages Virginia will have over the Blue Devils, though, will be experience and cohesiveness.

Odom returns 59 percent of his scoring from last season, by far the highest ratio among ACC teams. De Ridder and Sam Lewis each averaged double figures, and Chance Mallory (9.3) figures to get even more opportunities as he moves into a starting role.

Even with a new crop of transfers (Jurian Dixon, Christian Harmon, Jan Vide, Kalu Anya and Nolan Adekunle), the Cavaliers shouldn't need long to assimilate into Odom's game plan, especially on defense. That was an occasional deficiency last season, notably in the first meeting with Duke. Dixon and Anyu have shown early signs of helping on that end of the court.

The superior physical strength and basketball IQ of 20-somethings like De Ridder, Lewis, Harmon, Anyu and Fine should serve the Cavaliers well in matchups with younger teams.

Virginia isn't likely to see Duke, though, until later in the season, when Scheyer will have had time to blend his talents into a formidable force. He'll likely be able to rotate at least three 7-footers (Williams, Ngongba and Boumtje Boumtje) to defend De Ridder, and you can be sure the Devils will relentlessly pressure Mallory, Virginia's only proven ball-handler.

With their experience and talent, the Cavaliers will have a chance against anyone they play this season. As usual, though, Duke will be as big a challenge as anyone.