KenPom Predicts No. 11 Virginia Basketball vs Duke Final Score

The biggest game of the year for Virginia has arrived.

The Cavaliers have exceeded expectations so far under first-year head coach Ryan Odom, but they are going to face a massive test on the road at Cameron Indoor Stadium against No. 1 Duke. The Blue Devils are playing as well as any team in the country, coming off a big win over No. 3 Michigan last weekend, and have the Wooden Award front-runner in Cameron Boozer, who is projected to be a top three pick in the upcoming NBA Draft.

VA is 11-2 away from home this season, including an 8-1 mark in true road contests. UVA has scored 80 or more points in 18 games (most since 21 in 2000-01). UVA is averaging 82.3 points, most since 85 ppg in 2000-01. UVA ranks 13th in the NET rankings and 14th in the kenpom.com rankings.

Speaking of KenPom, what do they think about the game tomorrow?

Duke, who is the No. 1 team in the KenPom rankings, is the favorite to win tomorrow. KenPom is giving the Blue Devils an 83% chance to win this game and is predicting a 75-65 final score. The Hoos are going to be big underdogs tomorrow and nobody is giving them a chance to win.

The Matchup

Virginia ranks first in the ACC in blocks (6.2 bpg), rebounding (41.3), offensive rebounding (13.7) and 3-point field goal percentage defense (.300), second in field goal percentage defense (.393), scoring margin (+14.6) and rebounding margin (+8.7), third in scoring defense (67.8 ppg), 3-pointers (10.3) and defensive rebounds (27.5 rpg), fourth in 3-point field goal percentage (.363) and assists (17.0 apg) and fifth in assist/turnover ratio (1.56). Thijs De Ridder ranks 14th in scoring (16.0 ppg), eighth in field goal percentage (52.4%) and 18th in rebounds (6.3 rpg).

Dallin Hall ranks first in assist/turnover ratio (3.2) and 12th in assists (4.2 apg). Ugonna Onyenso leads the ACC in blocks at 2.6 bpg, while Johann Grünloh ranks third in blocks at 2.4 bpg. Chance Mallory ranks second in assist/turnover ratio (3.0), fifth in steals (1.7 spg), 14th in assists (3.7 apg), and 16th in free throw percentage (78.2%). Mallory is currently the only freshman in NCAA Division I with 250 points, 100 rebounds, 90 assists, 45 steals, and 30 three pointers. Jacari White ranks 12th in 3-pointers made per game (2.3).

How can Virginia slow down Cameron Boozer? That is going to be one of the keys to the game. There is a reason that Boozer is considered the favorite for national player of the year, and he does everything well. His passing, his rebounding, and his ability to score at every level make him so tough to match up with. What does Ryan Odom do to limit his effect on the game?