KenPom Predicts Virginia Basketball vs Wright State Final Score

Will Virginia survive the first round of the NCAA Tournament and advance to the second round?

Mar 19, 2026; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Virginia Cavaliers center Ugonna Onyenso (33) shoots during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

It is time to dance for Virginia Basketball.

The Cavaliers open up their NCAA Tournament run with a matcup against 14th seeded Wright State and the Hoos will look to get a win in Ryan Odom's first tournament game as the head coach in Charlottesville.

Will Virginia get a win? They are a heavy favorite coming into today's game in Vegas and in advanced analytics.

KenPom is projecting an 81-65 win for UVA and giving them a 93% chance to win the game. However, this is March Madness we are talking about and anything can happen. The Raiders have a solid offense and can hang around in the game.

Matchup Preview

Virginia is making its 27th appearance in the NCAA Tournament and seeks its first tournament win since 2019 when the Cavaliers won their first NCAA championship. UVA has 29 or more wins for the ninth time in school history. Virginia is 13-4 away from John Paul Jones Arena, including a
5-2 record on neutral courts.

UVA is averaging 80.6 points, most since 85 ppg in 2000-01. UVA has scored 80 or more points in 19 games (most since 21 in 2000-01). UVA returns to Philadelphia for the first time since losing 61-59
to Villanova on Jan. 29, 2017 at the former Wells Fargo Center. UVA advanced to the 1981 Final Four at The Spectrum and is 8-16 all-time in Philadelphia

Virginia ranks first in the ACC in blocks (6.5 bpg) and offensive rebounding (13.2), second in rebounding (40.2), field goal percentage defense (39.5%), third in scoring defense (68.4 ppg), scoring margin (+12.7), rebounding margin (+7.4), 3-point field goal percentage defense (.309) and fourth in 3-point field goal percentage (35.9%), assists (16.6 apg), 3-pointers (10.1), defensive rebounds (27.0 rpg) and assist/turnover ratio (1.53).

Thijs De Ridder ranks 16th in scoring (15.5 ppg), ninth in field goal percentage (50.8%) and 17th in rebounding (6.2 rpg). Dallin Hall ranks first in assist/turnover ratio (3.3) and 11th in assists (4.3 apg). Ugonna Onyenso leads the ACC in blocks at 3.0 bpg, while Johann Grünloh ranks third in blocks at 2.2 bpg. Chance Mallory ranks second in assist/turnover ratio (3.2), eighth in steals (1.6 spg), 13th in assists (3.6 apg) and 15th in free throw percentage (78.6%). Jacari White ranks 14th in 3-pointers made per game (2.1)

Virginia ranks 13th nationally in field goal percentage defense (39.5%) and 38th in 3-point field goal percentage defense (30.9%). UVA ranks 18th in scoring margin (+12.2) and tied for 42nd in
scoring defense (68.4 ppg).