Point/Counterpoint: Reviewing the UVA Men's Basketball Season So Far
It’s exam week, and there’s no basketball. And as we just learned this week, Virginia’s student-athletes do a better job at the student part than anyone else in the country. So while the men take a well-deserved break to hit the books, Matt and Val will take a deeper look into where the team stands right now. Let’s dive in!
1. As part of our preview of the men's hoops team, Matt and I had a draft of the team. Let's re-visit those picks. Which was your best pick? Which selection do you want to do over?
Matt: Looking back on our draft, I'm fairly happy with how my team is turning out. Reece Beekman and Isaac McKneely have been as advertised, although we're still hoping to see more from Beekman offensively, but McKneely has been even better than anyone hoped on both ends of the floor. Blake Buchanan is playing more than any Virginia freshman center in recent memory and Leon Bond III has looked exquisite coming off his redshirt season and he's barely scratched the surface of his potential. If there's one thing I'd change, I suppose I should've gone with Taine Murray instead of the unsurprisingly redshirted Anthony Robinson.
I'd say I won the draft and while I'm not humble enough to take none of the credit (I think I drafted pretty well), you've had some unfortunate luck with your selections, Val, with your No. 2 pick going bust and your No. 3 pick currently out with an injury.
Val: OMG, did I blow this thing by taking Jordan Minor. With the second pick. I was just not expecting Coach Tony Bennett to not redshirt Buchanan. Minor seemed destined to me to get 25+ minutes a game just by default. Jacob Groves logged time at the 5 in the Blue-White scrimmage, but I didn’t believe we’d get a full season of that. I refused to believe that Minor wouldn’t be a central figure, and yet here we are, and boy, Minor just doesn’t look comfortable on either end of the floor. I’m not sure what he brings to the table.
Dante Harris, the aforementioned injured party you spoke of Matt, has not been impressive either. He just doesn’t bring enough of anything to the table. He has played 20 minutes/game yet he doesn’t score – 3.5 points – and he doesn’t distribute that well either at a little over one assist per game. And he’s been eclipsed by Elijah Gertrude who does almost everything better than Harris.
Yeah. I want a do-over on this one.
2. Andrew Rohde is leading this team in minutes played. Not Reece Beekman, not Isaac McKneely. Should he still be getting these kinds of minutes going forward?
Matt: If we were having this discussion a few weeks ago, I'd have been more sympathetic to the idea of Rohde playing less. He wasn't shooting well, looked (at least) a half a step slow, and there were reasonable concerns that he wasn't quite ready to play at this level. But Rohde's game-by-game improvement has been perhaps the most significant of any player on the roster through nine games. He's been shooting the three ball better (40% in the last three games), playing a serviceable level of defense, and his facilitation abilities have continued to be top-notch - he delivers a beautiful pocket pass out of the pick-and-roll and has 13 assists in the last three games. Rohde scored 13 points against Texas A&M and then 10 points against Syracuse a few days later. He's now the third-best three-point shooter on the team at 35.5% (minimum 15 attempts) and that's the main reason I'd argue he needs to keep playing as much as he is. Leon Bond III is a much better athlete and defender and his mid-range game is brilliant, but he seems largely unwilling to even attempt three-pointers. Rohde, on the other hand, is willing and able to shoot threes and that's crucial for Virginia's offensive spacing. And with the absence of Dante Harris, Rohde is also filling an essential role as an additional ball-handler and playmaker. I don't see his minutes going anywhere.
Val: I don’t see Rohde’s minutes decreasing either, Matt, though I want more Bond. I like this quote from Bennett:
“Any way we can get points when we’re not scoring. We don’t pound it inside and have post guys that go to work. We use more cuts into the post. Some of our smaller guys are a little more effective on the low post or even that off the lane, we call it the playmaker spot, and so obviously you get guys in there and then have some action going on while the ball’s in their hands.”
UVA doesn't have a low-post presence. I clearly thought it was going to be Minor – he’s not – and it will be Buchanan – at some point – but for now the way to attack the rim is with back screen cuts and this is where Bond is excelling. He’s hitting 57% from the floor and while he can finish at the rim, most of his shots are classic mid-range shots from the elbow. According to one stat I found, he’s 9/13 on mid-range jumpers of such back screens. In other words, Bond is better at doing what he’s best at – shooting the mid-range – than Rohde is at hitting the three. Even with his explosion of points that you referenced, Matt, Bond is outscoring Rohde on a per-40 minute basis 18.7 to 9.5 points per game. Same is true rebounding wise, 10.8 boards for Bond as opposed to 3.5 for Rohde.
Gertrude is putting up per-40 numbers similar to Bond. I’d be perfectly happy to more Gertrude as the 2 and McKneely as the 3 which would also eat into Rohde’s minutes.
3. ACC play starts in earnest on December 30th when the team travels to South Bend to take on Notre Dame. What are you most confident about the team looking ahead to the ACC slate?
Matt: Defense. If Virginia's performance against Syracuse in the ACC opener was any indicator, UVA should be in contention for yet another ACC regular season title by the time March comes around. The team's three-point shooting was incredible in that win over the Orange and it would be wishful thinking to hope for that every time. But Virginia's defense - headlined by the individual efforts of Reece Beekman and Ryan Dunn - has been phenomenal as of late. Assuming the Cavaliers are able to keep their defensive rebounding issues under reasonable control, the potential is there for them to put the best defense in college basketball on the court and one that should hold up well against most of the ACC this season. As has been the case so many times under Tony Bennett, Virginia is going to win with defense and I see the Hoos winning a lot of games when the full ACC schedule arrives.
Val: I had a different answer in mind when I posed this question to Matt but then I read this piece by Chris Graham. The two most frequent lineups Bennett has employed feature Beekman, Rohde, McKneely and Dunn. They differ at the 5 spot, with the most common featuring Jacob Groves with the second one utilizing Buchanan. The Groves lineup is much better on the offensive end, outscoring the Buchanan lineup by .32 points per possession. The Buchanan lineup is much better on the defensive side, allowing .29 points per possession less than the Groves lineup. The Groves lineup is pretty elite while the Buchanan defense looks equally elite. And yet, the Groves lineup is getting twice as much run-time as the Buchanan lineup. Bennett, surprise, surprise, is choosing offense over defense this season. And did you ever expect to read that sentence, Matt?
What I am feeling best about is something I hinted at in my preview piece, and that is success in transition. Bond, Dunn, Harris, Gertrude. I posited that this would be Bennett’s most athletic team ever. And it’s looking that way, especially with the emergence of Gertrude. In their last two games the Cavaliers have scored a whopping 40 points in transition, which is about as many as they scored in the first seven games. This is on Gertrude, I think, who gets up and down the court very quickly. That was supposed to be Harris’ forte, but Gertrude is much more physical. It’s also helped that McKneely has caught fire from deep these past two games, but explosions at the rim and transition threes can be very demoralizing.
And yet the team isn’t running and gunning. That’s not the Bennett way. Bennett wins by controlling the pace. It’s the single biggest advantage the team has: Virginia dictates the tempo. Always. And yet even with the explosion in transition, the team only had 64 possessions these two games as opposed to the historical average of 60 possessions. It’s blindingly obvious, but getting easy buckets helps.
4. And conversely, what has you most concerned?
Matt: Teams with a lot of size and strength in the front court - Florida, Wisconsin, and Texas A&M serving as examples so far - have been able to rebound the ball at will on the offensive glass against Virginia. The Cavaliers have been great at forcing low-percentage shots, but their inability to deny second-chance opportunities directly led to their loss to the Badgers and is particularly concerning for their future matchups against ACC teams - thinking specifically about UNC's Armando Bacot down the line. UVA's front court isn't going to physically grow overnight or at any point this season for that matter, but through a combination of effort and execution from all five players on the floor, Virginia showed it could win the rebounding battle in the victory over Syracuse. It's going to take aggressive rebounding from Ryan Dunn, Jake Groves, and Blake Buchanan as well as the guards in order for the Cavaliers to keep their opponents' offensive rebounds and second chance opportunities to a minimum.
Val: I’m not sold that this is a good three-point shooting team. The team is hitting 39.3% from deep, good for 18th in the nation. Rohde has been better these past three games – 6/15 or 40% – but Groves has been worse – 4/17 or 23% – over the past six games. Beekman is connecting at a 28% clip while Dunn is even worse at 21%. Taine Murray is doing well from beyond the arc – 4/8 – but he’s getting low-import minutes. Virginia's 18th-in-the-nation rating is being buttressed by McKneely’s unconscious 58% success. What happens when he comes back down to earth and has a couple of 3/9 nights? Can Rohde really make up that much slack?
5. Where do you think this team finishes in the ACC this year?
Matt: Anything outside of the top three will be disappointing. We're nine games in and that's not a huge sample size, but it's large enough to draw a few meaningful conclusions: this team's athleticism is no joke, the defense can and should be stifling night in and night out, and Virginia has shown an ability to be a proficient three-point shooting team. As you say, Val, 18th in the country. I think it's likely the Cavaliers will find themselves top contenders for the ACC regular season title once again.
Val: Start of the season, I was thinking top 3. I’m bullish on the team. There is versatility, athleticism and exuberance. McKneely could be this year’s JJ Redick. I’d be all ready to proclaim an ACC regular season title but for the fact that Virginia has still played an underwhelming schedule. The Cavaliers are closing their out-of-conference slate with games against Northwestern and Morgan State (though Memphis is looking very interesting) while UNC closes out against UConn, Kentucky and Oklahoma. That’s the slate of a team that expects to challenge for it all come March. Virginia's? Looks more fit for a team trying to figure out all the moving pieces. UNC is going to be better prepared for the rigors of the ACC than will be Virginia.
Can you get back to me, Matt, after the Memphis game?
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