Predicting Virginia’s Full NCAA Tournament Path: Can the Cavaliers Reach the Final Four?

The brackets are set and Virginia's path to the Final Four is in front of them.

The Cavaliers are going to be the No. 3 seed in the Midwest Region and will face 14th-seeded Wright State, winners of the Horizon League, in the first round. Virginia is going to be a heavy favorite against the Raiders, but it is March Madness, and anything can happen.

Does Virginia have what it takes to reach the Final Four? Let's predict this round by round.

First round: vs (14) Wright State

I am going to repeat this a lot over the next five days, but it is March and anything can happen. With that being said, I do not thing that Wright State has what it takes to beat the Cavaliers.

UVA's defense is going to be the key to this game. Wright State's offense is the better end of the floor (ranking 117th in offensive rating on KenPom), and they are hard to beat when they get hot shooting. I think UVA's defense is going to suffocate the Raiders and they will win big.

Second Round: vs (6) Tennessee

I think that Tennessee is going to beat either Miami (OH) or SMU to get to the second round and face the Hoos.

Tennessee comes into this game ranked 16th in KenPom and they are coming off a loss to Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals. The player to watch for Tennessee is going to be freshman Nate Ament, who has been banged up this year, but is one of the most talented freshmen in the country and a projected top ten pick in the upcoming NBA Draft.

This is not going to be an easy matchup for the Cavaliers, but I think that they can come out on top. Expect this to be a lower-scoring defensive battle as both teams are ranked in the top 20 of defensive rating in KenPom, and whoever can find consistency on the other end of the floor will decide the game.

It will be close and come down to the end, but give me UVA to squeak out a win vs the Volunteers.

Sweet 16: vs (2) Iowa State

Iowa State has been one of the best teams in the country all season and are a legitimate threat to win the national championship. They played in arguably the best game of the season in the Big 12 Semifinals against Arizona and were close to knocking off the Wildcats and getting to the conference championship.

The Cyclones have the No. 4 defensive rating on KenPom and the No. 21 offensive rating in the country coming into the Tournament and will have to get by Tennessee State in the first round and either Kentucky or Santa Clara in the second round.

While this team is certainly capable of getting to the Final Four and possibly farther, they do have one fatal flaw, and that is free throw shooting. The Cyclones are one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the country, ranking 342nd in that category. I think that is going to come back to haunt them and cost them a chance at getting to the Elite Eight and beyond.

UVA finds a way to get past their strong defense and make their way to the regional final.

Elite Eight: vs (1) Michigan

Michigan has been the favorite to win the national championship for months, and despite the loss of L.J. Cason in the backcourt, they are still up there as far as favorites go. They have a huge front court with Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson, and Aday Mara, and they are going to be a handful in the Tournament.

Michigan was dominant all season long, but it is worth pointing out that they did not play their best in the Big Ten Tournament, nearly losing to Ohio State and Wisconsin and then losing by eight to Purdue in the championship today. That could mean nothing, but with Cason out for the season, they are more vulnerable than normal.

Virginia does have the frontcourt to be able to give this large Michigan team problems. Ugonna Onyenso is coming off a historic performance in the ACC Tournament and both Thijs de Ridder and Johann Grunloh can match up with Michigan's big guys.

Still, I think the Wolverines are going to be too much for the Cavaliers. The run ends for Virginia in the Elite Eight and they conclude a great first season under Ryan Odom by nearly getting to the Final Four.