Predicting Where Virginia Will Rank In This Week's AP Top 25 Following Loss to Duke

The AP Poll will release later this afternoon and Virginia fans are going to be watching to see if their favorite team is going to drop.

No. 11 UVA had a 1-1 week, starting with a blowout win over NC State and the followed up by a blowout loss vs No. 1 Duke, who should remain in the top spot. Other teams around them lost, but how will voters treat Virginia?

Prediction

This is one of the tougher polls to project. On one hand, UVA is still 25-4 and in firm control to be the No. 2 seed in the ACC Tournament. On the other hand, the game against Duke may have confirmed what other voters suspect, which is that Virginia is an overrated team that has taken advantage of a poor schedule. I think that is the wrong way to look at the Hoos, but that sentiment has been out there since the loss on Saturday.

Could any teams fall out of the top ten? I think that Purdue, Gonzaga, and Illinois are candidates to be dropped from the top ten, but obviously, I don't think that means that UVA will jump up; it could just mean that those teams stay in front of them. Nebraska, Michigan State, Kansas, and Texas Tech all had good weeks and should see a move up.

I think that UVA is going to fall to No. 17. I think that Purdue, Gonzaga, and Illinois will remain in front of UVA and North Carolina has a chance to jump them as well. They should still get respect for the season they have had, even if the game on Saturday was lopsided.

After having so much momentum and then being dominated like that, the mindset of the team is going to be something to watch as the regular season comes to a close next Saturday, but it is not something that UVA head coach Ryan Odom is worrying about:

"We do it every game. Celebrate, tolerate. We're going to celebrate the things that we did really well. We're not going to tolerate the things that we didn't, and try to move those tolerated things to the celebrate side, and we just try to learn from the game and the performance, and there's probably a five to seven minute stretch in there where we might be able to learn some things about ourselves but all in all we did not play well enough to be extremely competitive in this game."

He also gave plenty of praise for Duke and their young head coach Jon Scheyer:

"He's done a great job since he took over. There's no more pressure situation than what he's been thrust into. And he and his staff have done a fabulous job of following a legend, and obviously, he knows the inner workings of this place better than anybody. And he's just done a magnificent job in this particular year. His team is well-balanced. They know who they are on offense. They know who they are on defense.

They're a typical tough-minded Duke basketball team that's going to rebound and pressure the ball and be kind of in your grill, and offensively, they're very patient, and they know where the ball needs to go on most possessions, and so that's a credit to Coach Scheyer and his staff."

There was a lot on the line in this game for both teams, though it mattered far more to Virginia. They could have taken the lead in the ACC and been in prime position to win the regular season conference championship. Now, that is not possible and earning a 1 or a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament is not likely on the table.

There are two games left for UVA to wrap up their still very successful first campaing under Odom. They host Wake Forest and Virginia Tech next week and then will head to Charlotte for the ACC Tournament.