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The Best and Worst Case Scenarios For Virginia On Selection Sunday

What are some of the best and worst potential outcomes for the Cavaliers in the NCAA Tournament
Mar 14, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Virginia Cavaliers guard Malik Thomas (1) shoots over Duke Blue Devils guard Dame Sarr (7) during the men's ACC Conference Tournament Championship at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images
Mar 14, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Virginia Cavaliers guard Malik Thomas (1) shoots over Duke Blue Devils guard Dame Sarr (7) during the men's ACC Conference Tournament Championship at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

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Selection Sunday is officially here for college basketball, and one of the most highly anticipated days of the year has returned. In anticipation of one of the best days of the year, let’s take a closer look at the best and worst-case scenarios for Virginia on Selection Sunday. 

Best 

No.3 Seed 

This would be ideal for the Cavaliers, who were one of the best teams in the ACC this season. They handled business against everybody but Duke (twice), North Carolina, and split the season series with Virginia Tech. Outside of that, they didn’t have much trouble performing at a high level. The projection as a three seed could put them in a favorite bracket with Michigan and UConn, or Arizona and Michigan State. Don’t get me wrong, these teams are good, but they have shown some chinks in the armour and some major vulnerabilities. A defensive team like the Cavaliers could take advantage of that and make a run in the NCAA tourney. It all comes down to matchups. With Florida and Houston losing today, maybe that changes things for the Cavaliers. A top-three seed would give them control over that, and they wouldn’t have to face the top seed until it matters the most.

Playing Near Virginia 

The fanbase for the Cavaliers is one of the better ones you will find. They travel and cheer on their team in bunches. If they played closer to Virginia, it could make it a lot easier for them to bring people to games and make it a home-like atmosphere similar to John Paul Jones Arena. That can make all the difference in the world and save them from long road trips out west or on the other side of the country. It will be interesting to see where they will play and if the travel can be accommodating to their fan base.  

Worst Case 

No.4 Seed 

It feels like the worst that can happen for the Cavaliers is for them to fall to a No.4 seed. Prior to the matchup against Duke, Virginia was ranked as the No.10 team in the AP Poll and projected as a three seed per ESPN tournament expert Joe Lunardi. Lunardi had Virginia ranked as a top 11 team in the country, and matched up in the west bracket with Arizona and Michigan State. They could potentially fall if the committee sees Vanderbilt as a team fit for a top-three seed after their rout over top-seed Florida in the SEC tournament. The Commodores have seven losses compared to just five for Virginia, but winning the SEC tournament title could propel them forward. A potential four seed could match them in a bracket with Duke or Florida in the NCAA tourney, which could be problematic. 

Playing Against Duke For A Potential Third Time & Being In The Same Bracket

Let’s be honest here. Virginia can play with Duke and even possibly defeat them, but they haven’t this season, and Duke leads the series 2-0. Duke shut down their best player in the ACC title game and held Thijs De Ridder to five points on 1-6 shooting and three turnovers. In the previous matchup, Sam Lewis finished with zero points and fouled out. The Blue Devils have their number, and being in the same bracket could be problematic if Virginia wants to make a run to the Final Four. They would have to go through Duke in the Elite Eight to make it a reality. Duke clinched its third ACC title in four seasons after defeating the Cavaliers in the conference title game.