Early Bart Torvik Projection Sees Virginia as a Top 16 Team heading into the 2026-2027 season

Where should Virginia be heading into the upcoming season?

Mar 19, 2026; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Ryan Odom conducts a press conference during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

The 2025-2026 season for Virginia Basketball was a successful one for Ryan Odom in his first season in Charlottesville and he is looking to build off of a year where the Cavaliers made the ACC Tournament championship, were a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and won an NCAA Tournament game for the first time since their national championship season in 2019.

It is May, and the rosters across the country are not complete, but some projections are starting to trickle out for the upcoming 2026-2027 season. Noted college basketball analyst Bart Torvik just released his first set of projections for next season, and right now, Virginia is projected at No. 16, with the No. 21 projected offense and the No. 13 projected defense

Fair ranking?

Mar 22, 2026; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Virginia Cavaliers guard Sam Lewis (5) shoots the ball against the Tennessee Volunteers in the first half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

I want to reiterate that these projections are being released prior to most teams having their set roster for next season and that is especially important for Virginia. The Cavaliers are ranked in the top 16, despite only having one transfer addition to the team so far and plenty more holes to fill.

The big thing that Odom and his staff wanted to focus on this offseason was retaining the talent that they already had on the roster. So far, Sam Lewis, Thijs de Ridder, Johann Grunloh, Chance Mallory, and others have announced that they are going to be coming back next season, giving the Cavaliers three returning starters and one of their top bench guards back for next season. Players like Martin Carrere, Elijah Gertrude, and Silas Barksdale have a chance to take a step next season, and they will likely be counted on to do just that.

The one portal addition that UVA has made so far this offseason is former UC Irvine forward Jurian Dixon, who is one of the best three-point shooters in the portal and someone who is going to have an instant impact.

While this is a lofty projection and a fair one for UVA, they are still going to have to find a way to replace a lot of production with Dallin Hall, Malik Thomas, Jacari White, Ugonna Onyenso, and Devin Tillis running out of eligibility. Each of those players brought something unique to roster, such as Onyenso's shot blocking and Thomas's shot creation, and that is the biggest question that Odom has to face heading into next season.

Still, UVA should be seen as one of the top contenders in the ACC and with the right portal additions to round out the roster, perhaps a preseason top ten team.