Virginia vs. Duke Game Preview, Score Prediction
The final road game of the regular season brings Virginia its toughest road challenge of the year and also a massive opportunity for a critical resume-building victory as the Cavaliers march into Cameron Indoor on Saturday night to take on the No. 10-ranked Duke Blue Devils on ESPN.
Read on for a full preview of Virginia at No. 10 Duke, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, what to watch for, and a prediction for Saturday night's matchup.
Game Details
Who: Virginia Cavaliers (21-8, 12-6 ACC) at Duke Blue Devils (22-6, 13-4 ACC)
When: Saturday, March 2nd at 6pm ET
Where: Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, North Carolina
How to watch: ESPN
How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
How to listen: SiriusXM 82 | Virginia Sports Radio Network - click here for affiliates
All-time series: Duke leads 124-54
Last meeting: Duke defeated Virginia 59-49 in the final of the 2023 ACC Tournament on March 11th, 2023 in Greensboro.
Game Notes
- Duke holds a 124-54 lead over Virginia in the all-time series that dates back to 1911.
- Duke is 59-12 against Virginia in Durham and 54-10 at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
- UVA is 2-3 in the last five games against Duke and 4-6 in the last 10 games.
- Virginia won its most recent trip to Cameron Indoor, a 69-68 victory over Duke on a buzzer-beating three by Reece Beekman on February 7th, 2022.
- A win would give UVA back-to-back wins at Cameron Indoor for the first time since 1982.
- Duke is currently second in the ACC standings at 13-4 in conference play while Virginia is third at 12-6.
Opponent Scouting Report: Duke
2023-2024: 22-6, 13-4 ACC (2nd in ACC)
Year 1 of the post-Coach K era of Duke basketball saw Jon Scheyer lead the Blue Devils to the ACC Tournament title in his first year as a head coach. Scheyer kept that momentum rolling into the offseason, as in addition to bringing in Duke's usual highly-touted freshmen class featuring standouts Jared McCain and Caleb Foster, Scheyer also succeeded in recruiting his own locker room, bringing back the bulk of last year's roster that won the ACC Tournament and earned a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament before falling to Tennessee in the second round.
Dereck Lively II and Dariq Whitehead are gone, but virtually everyone else is back, including reigning ACC Rookie of the Year Kyle Filipowski and fellow sophomores Mark Mitchell and Tyrese Proctor, as well as senior leaders Jeremy Roach and Ryan Young. With that array of talent, including a mix of fresh faces and experienced returners, Duke has the pieces to make a postseason run.
Even with more experience than a typical Duke squad, the Blue Devils still endured some early growing pains, dropping three of their first eight games, including a home loss to what we now know is one of the best teams in the country in Arizona. After a shocking upset loss at Georgia Tech on December 2nd, Duke settled into a rhythm and won the next eight games, including a big-time neutral site victory over Baylor at Madison Square Garden. Pittsburgh joined Arizona as the only two teams to beat Duke at Cameron this season, a club Virginia will look to join on Saturday, and then the Blue Devils were taken down by archrival North Carolina a couple weeks later in Chapel Hill.
Duke won its next five games and then lost at Wake Forest 83-79 last Saturday before bouncing back with an 84-59 thrashing of Louisville, a game in which Kyle Filipowski managed to play 29 minutes despite his near-death experience in the court storming at Wake Forest just four days earlier, suffering an injury that was originally categorized as an ankle sprain but apparently didn't end up being quite so serious.
Duke is second only to North Carolina in the ACC in scoring offense at 80.5 points per game, but also has the fourth-best scoring defense in the conference, giving the Blue Devils the best points per game margin in the league. Duke is also the best three-point shooting team in the ACC at 38.6%, which makes sense given that the Blue Devils have three players shooting better than 40% from beyond the arc and two more shooting 34% or better from three in their normal rotation.
The aforementioned Kyle Filipowski is Duke's leading scorer and rebounder at 16.6 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. The 7'0", 248-pound center is a bruiser and not afraid of contact, but can also handle the ball and shoot the three at 34.4%. As a freshman last season, Filipowski's only scoreless game came in an overtime loss at Virginia, but he got his revenge with a 20-point, 10-rebound performance in Duke's win over UVA in the ACC Tournament title game. Jordan Minor and Blake Buchanan will once again have their hands full trying to keep Filipowski out of the lane.
Just as Reece Beekman significantly raised Virginia's ceiling this season by returning for his senior year, so too did Jeremy Roach for Duke. The 6'2" senior guard and Virginia native is averaging a career-high 14.4 points and has experienced a major breakthrough from beyond the arc, shooting a blistering 48.0% from three after shooting 34.3% a season ago. Roach has faced UVA many times in his career and delivered his best performance against the Cavaliers in the ACC Tournament, scoring 23 points.
6'3" freshman guard Jared McCain has the green light from three-point range, taking nearly six of them per game and making those perimeter jumpers at a 41.8% clip. McCain is also very quick and athletic and will often attack over-aggressive close-outs to get to the basket. He averages 13.6 points per game and is a good rebounder for his size at 4.9 rebounds per game.
Tyrese Proctor missed a few games earlier this season with an ankle injury, but has been steady in his sophomore campaign at 10.2 points per game. He's a tough matchup to defend at 6'5" and facilitates Duke's offense along with Roach, averaging 3.7 assists per game, while also shooting 35.7% from three.
Speaking of injuries, Duke will be without 6'5" freshman guard Caleb Foster, who has started 15 games this season and is averaging 7.7 points per game and shooting 40.6% from three, on Saturday, as Jon Scheyer said he will be "out for some time" with a lower leg injury.
Rounding out the starting five is 6'9" sophomore forward Mark Mitchell. He isn't shooting the three nearly as well as he was last season - 25.0% down from 35.2% - but his scoring is up from 9.1 to 12.8 points per game and his rebounding has increased as well from 4.5 to 6.3 rebounds per contest. Mitchell has developed into a very capable and solid power forward option alongside Filipowski in the front court and his matchup with Ryan Dunn will be an interesting one to watch on both ends of the floor.
6'10" graduate center Ryan Young spells Kyle Filipowski whenever he needs a breather or gets into foul trouble. The former Northwestern transfer is averaging 3.1 points and 3.5 rebounds per game and has a more old-fashioned big man's game in contrast to the modern versatility of Filipowski, but he is still a veteran who can make big plays when needed.
With Caleb Foster out, look for 6'2" junior guard Jaylen Blakes, 6'9" freshman forward Sean Stewart, or even 6'9" freshman forward TJ Power, who was pursued vigorously by Tony Bennett on the recruiting trail before he committed to Duke, to possibly get more minutes off the bench in this game.
What to Watch For
A Battle in Cameron
Virginia and Duke almost always play tight, competitive, and hard-fought games and Saturday night should be no different. Both of these teams take pride in their defense and the Cavaliers and Blue Devils have history (which we'll dive into in the next section) and plenty to play for. Expect there to be no shortage of physicality as these two teams, who are currently second and third in the ACC standings, go to war for 40 minutes on national TV on Saturday night at Cameron.
Bad Blood?
These two teams met twice last season, with Virginia taking the first meeting in a thrilling, but apparently controversial overtime win. The Blue Devils felt they were robbed at the end of regulation and they were vindicated by the ACC releasing a statement saying that there was indeed an officiating error in that end-of-regulation sequence. Without getting into the details, the entire situation was a mess and poorly-handled by the league and the outcome remained a well-earned victory for Virginia. But when the Blue Devils got their chance for revenge, they didn't miss, smothering UVA's offense and beating the Cavaliers 59-49 to claim the 2023 ACC Tournament Championship. With lots of returners from last season still playing for both teams this time around, there will likely be even more juice than usual in this game and no shortage of motivation.
High Stakes
Speaking of motivation, both teams have plenty to play for in this game in addition to just wanting to beat their opponent. At 13-4 in conference play, Duke currently sits one game behind North Carolina for first place in the ACC with the Tar Heels set to visit Cameron next Saturday. Virginia, meanwhile, is two games behind Duke at 12-6 and looking to lock down the No. 3 seed in the ACC Tournament, or even steal the No. 2 seed if the Blue Devils lose again next week. More importantly, though, the Cavaliers are trying desperately to secure their positioning for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. UVA is firmly on the Bubble right now, still projected to be in the Big Dance, but not by much depending on which Bracketologist you ask. Unlike in many professional sports, there is no official "clinching" of a playoff berth in college basketball, but a win at Duke on Saturday would essentially clinch an appearance in the NCAA Tournament for Virginia, while a loss would leave the Cavaliers skating on thin ice with just one game to go before the ACC Tournament, where they would likely need a good showing in order to not be sweating it out with the other Bubble hopefuls on Selection Sunday.
Prediction
On February 7th, 2022, an unranked Virginia team in desperate need of a resume-building win went into Cameron Indoor and took down a top-10 ranked Duke team on a buzzer-beating three by Reece Beekman. It's not impossible that history could repeat itself on Virginia's next trip to Durham - Reece Beekman is still on the roster after all. But there's a reason UVA has only won 10 games at Cameron Indoor ever. It's an incredibly difficult place to play and with all the struggles the Cavaliers have had scoring the basketball this season, it seems too likely that they won't be able to get comfortable enough on the offensive end to reach the necessary point total to win a game like this. It would require a sharpness of execution that visiting teams rarely display in that building and I'm not sure the Hoos have it in them this time. We'll see if they can surprise me.
Score prediction: Virginia 57, Duke 60
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