Virginia Basketball at North Carolina Game Preview, Score Prediction

After seeing their ACC regular season title hopes take a tumble in a harrowing 15-point loss at Boston College on Wednesday, the Virginia Cavaliers will look to bounce back in their final road game of the regular season at North Carolina on Saturday night in Chapel Hill. In order to get the offense, and the season, back on track, UVA will have to knock off a UNC team that is even more desperate for a win as the Tar Heels attempt to secure a key resume-building victory to help them avoid missing the NCAA Tournament after starting the year as the No. 1 ranked team in the nation.

Read on for a full preview of Virginia at North Carolina, including details on the game, an opponent scouting report, game notes, and a score prediction.

Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (21-5, 13-4 ACC) at North Carolina Tar Heels (17-11, 9-8 ACC)

When: Saturday, February 25th at 6pm ET

Where: Smith Center in Chapel Hill, North Carolina

How to watch: ESPN

How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

How to listen: SiriusXM 85 or 194, SXM App 956 | Virginia Sports Radio Network - click here for affiliates

All-tie series: North Carolina leads 133-61

Last meeting: Virginia defeated North Carolina 65-58 on January 10th, 2023 in Charlottesville.

Opponent Scouting Report: North Carolina

2022-2023: 17-11, 9-8 ACC
Notable results: Iowa State 70-65 L, Alabama 103-101 (4OT) L, at Indiana 77-65 L, at Virginia Tech 80-72 L, Michigan 80-76 W, at Pitt 76-74 L, Wake Forest 88-79 W, at Virginia 65-58 L, Boston College 72-64 W, NC State 80-69 W, Pitt 65-64 L, at Duke 63-57 L, Miami 80-72 L, at NC State 77-69 L

With four starters returning from a team that lost in the National Championship Game by just three points, it was hard to argue against North Carolina being the preseason No. 1 team in the country and the landslide preseason favorite to win the ACC. But with just one week left in the regular season, the Tar Heels are currently tied for 7th in the ACC standings and are in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament entirely. After going on a nice run in January in which UNC won six out of seven games - with the lone loss being a 65-58 defeat at Virginia - the Tar Heels have hit another rough patch, losing five out of their last seven games. Hubert Davis isn't hitting the panic button in his second season leading the program, but this is pretty close to a must-win game for North Carolina.

Virginia won the first meeting with North Carolina back in Charlottesville on January 10th, but the rematch in Chapel Hill is almost assuredly going to have a drastically different complexion. UNC star center Armando Bacot, who is currently fourth in the ACC in scoring at 17.3 points per game and first in the conference in rebounding at 11.1 boards per game, exited the game at UVA just 80 seconds into the contest with an ankle injury and did not return. Bacot has been a problem for opposing teams all season long and Virginia had no answer for him in either of the two matchups between these two teams last season. The Cavaliers were fortunate not to have to worry about Bacot in the first meeting, but he will certainly make his presence felt this time around.

North Carolina's other starting big, Northwestern transfer Pete Nance, also missed the first meeting with Virginia. With both Bacot and Nance out of the game, UVA was able to implement small four-guard lineups that proved to be very effective on both ends of the floor in the victory for the Cavaliers. With Armando Bacot and Pete Nance on the floor for round 2, expect Virginia to be forced to rely on taller lineups with Kadin Shedrick and Francisco Caffaro on the floor, although there's still a good chance the Cavaliers will try to run small-ball at first. What is certain is that UVA will have to be physical on both ends of the floor to keep Armando Bacot away from the basket and off the glass.

North Carolina's back court unit of Caleb Love and RJ Davis have the playmaking abilities and the experience to take over games, but consistency has been an issue for them this season. Both Love (17.1 ppg) and Davis (15.6 ppg) are gifted scorers, but both have seen their three-point percentage decline drastically from last season. The departure of Brady Manek (38.2% three-point shooter in 2022) and the failure of Pete Nance (28.2% three-point shooter this season) to fill that void as a stretch-four has only worsened UNC's perimeter shooting problem. North Carolina is the worst three-point shooting team in the ACC at 29.9%, but the Tar Heels take the sixth-most three-point attempts in the conference. If Virginia can lock down the paint and force North Carolina into low percentage shots from the perimeter, the Cavaliers should be able to keep the Tar Heel offense in check.

Rounding out the starting five for UNC is elite defender Leaky Black, a 6'8" guard who is capable of guarding nearly every position on the floor. The only bench player getting consistent minutes is 6'8" junior Puff Johnson, with D'Marco Dunn and Seth Trimble also occasionally getting opportunities. Freshman forward Jalen Washington had a breakout game with 13 points in the first meeting against Virginia, but he only played extended minutes in that game due to Bacot's injury. North Carolina will likely rely on its starting five and Puff Johnson to play most of the game, barring foul trouble or injuries.

Game Notes

North Carolina holds a 133-61 advantage against Virginia in the all-time series, which dates back to the 1910-1911 season.
UNC is 67-9 against UVA all-time in Chapel Hill, but the Cavaliers are 4-4 in Chapel Hill under Tony Bennett.
Tony Bennett is 13-10 against North Carolina as a head coach.
Virginia is currently tied for second in the ACC standings at 13-4 and North Carolina is tied for seventh at 9-8.
Including UVA's 65-58 win over UNC earlier this season, Virginia has won seven of the last meetings with North Carolina, including a stretch of seven-straight wins for UVA in the series from 2017 to 2022.

What's at Stake

When the ACC men's basketball schedule for this season was first released, this game between Virginia and North Carolina on the second to last Saturday of the regular season was one circled by many as a game that could very well determine the ACC regular season champion. With UNC being the preseason favorite to win the conference and Virginia picked to finish third, that didn't seem to be a far-fetched prediction.

Things haven't exactly panned out that way, but this game still has massive implications for both teams. For North Carolina, a resume-building win over Virginia could be just what the doctor ordered to get UNC headed back towards a bid to the NCAA Tournament. And with a roster full of players who know what it takes to get to the national title game, the Tar Heels believe that they just need an invitation to the dance and they'll have a good chance to go on a run again.

The Cavaliers, meanwhile, are safely in the NCAA Tournament thanks to their solid record and strong non-conference resume, but their lofty AP ranking and their current projection as a No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament is very much in jeopardy as they punctuated a stretch of three-consecutive dismal performances with an ugly loss at Boston College in which the Hoos put up just 48 points. Virginia needs to start to look like the team that beat Baylor early in the season, especially on the offensive end. But most importantly, UVA needs to win in order to keep the hopes for an ACC regular season title alive. The Cavaliers can lock up at least a share of the ACC regular season title by winning their final three games, but they no longer control their own destiny for the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament. If Virginia finishes with the same conference record as either Miami (1st at 14-4) or Pittsburgh (tied with UVA for 2nd at 13-4), then Pitt/Miami will get the No. 1 seed since both of those teams own the head-to-head tiebreaker over UVA. A loss in any of the final three games likely means Virginia will have the No. 3 or even the No. 4 seed in the ACC Tournament.

Prediction

Given the high stakes of this matchup and the familiarity between these two teams, neither the Hoos nor the Heels should have any trouble coming out with an edge in this matchup. With neither team playing its best basketball right now, it's hard to give an edge to either side. With Armando Bacot and Pete Nance playing and North Carolina having home court advantage, the Tar Heels have a much better chance of winning this time than they did in the first meeting. Still, Virginia has an advantage on the defensive end of the floor and if the Cavaliers can just get a few three-pointers to fall, they'll likely have the upper hand in terms of perimeter shooting as well. The loss to Boston College should be the definition of a wake-up call and nothing would better serve as a palate cleanser for UVA than a big win over UNC in Chapel Hill.

Score prediction: Virginia 73, North Carolina 71

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