Virginia Basketball Drops in Latest Bracketology Projection Despite Their Winning Streak

Will the Virginia Cavaliers be able to bounce back in the next bracketology release?

Virginia Cavaliers forward Thijs De Ridder | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Despite their five gave winning-streak, the Virginia Cavaliers have faced drops in several rankings and projections this week. They're still situated at No. 15 in the AP Top 25, but they dropped down in the KenPom and NET rankings. Now, they've also encountered unfortunate movement in the bracketology projections.

Last week, Joe Lunardi of ESPN carefully placed the Cavaliers as a No. 4 seed, but this time around, they've fallen to No. 5, which would set them up to take on Liberty. Unsurprisingly, Arizona remains the top overall seed, while Missouri would be the last team in and TCU is projected to be the first team out.

Although this certainly isn't a significant drop, it is frustrating to see. However, this could change by clinching victories over key ACC opponents, including Miami, NC State and Duke.

Close Wins Cause Harm to UVA

Virginia Cavaliers guard Jacari White | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Watching the Cavaliers win through nail-biting overtime thrillers and last-minute buckets is invigorating for fans, but posting so many tight scores will ultimately hurt any college baseball program. Since the start of the New Year, Virginia has just barely edged out multiple opponents, but some of their tightest wins took place over SMU (72-68), Notre Dame (100-97), Boston College (73-66) and Florida State (61-58). One error, and each of these matchups could have easily been handed over to the opposing teams.

"... The competitor in all of us wants to play in those types of environments," head coach Ryan Odom stated during his media appearance after defeating the Seminoles. "And, you know, we've been in some really good ones this year. This was a great one tonight. The fans showed up for their team in a positive way, and our guys just kept fighting, and Florida State fought all for 40 minutes. So that's what you want in conference play, and certainly that's what we're getting."

Virginia's next matchup is scheduled for Feb. 14 at 8 p.m. ET against Ohio State. This is a neutral site, with both teams meeting in Nashville, Tenn. The Buckeyes are riding 16-8 overall and 8-6 in the Big Ten. However, don't overlook this matchup—relaxing on the court could allow this trap game to turn the other way and fall into the lap of Ohio State.

The Cavaliers could return to their previous No. 4 seeding in Lunardi's projection, but not without a victory, and ideally one that comes with a larger margin.