Virginia vs. Wake Forest Game Preview, Score Prediction
For the first time December 16th, the Virginia Cavaliers will play a home game on a Saturday. It's not just any game, either, as Saturday's matchup between UVA and Wake Forest pits the third and fourth-ranked teams in the ACC standings against one another in a game that has massive ramifications for both teams in terms of the ACC regular season title race, jostling for seeding in the ACC Tournament, and most importantly, building resumes worthy of a bid to the NCAA Tournament which is just over a month away.
Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. Wake Forest, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, what to watch for, and a prediction for Saturday's matchup.
Game Details
Who: Virginia Cavaliers (19-6, 10-4 ACC) vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (16-8, 8-5 ACC)
When: Saturday, February 17th at 12pm ET
Where: John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Virginia
How to watch: ESPN2
How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
How to listen: SiriusXM 106 or 193, SXM App 955 | Virginia Sports Radio Network - click here for affiliates
All-time series: Wake Forest leads 72-70
Last meeting: Wake Forest defeated Virginia 66-47 on January 13th in Winston-Salem.
Game Notes
- Wake Forest leads Virginia 72-70 in the all-time series that dates back to 1911.
- UVA has won 11 of the last 13 meetings with Wake Forest.
- Virginia is 42-22 against Wake Forest in Charlottesville, including a 7-3 record at John Paul Jones Arena.
- The Cavaliers are 11-6 against the Demon Deacons under Tony Bennett.
- UVA's 66-47 loss at Wake Forest was the team's fifth defeat by a margin of 16 or more points this season.
- Virginia is currently third in the ACC standings with a 10-4 conference record and Wake Forest sits in fourth at 8-5.
Opponent Scouting Report: Wake Forest
2023-2024: 16-8, 8-5 ACC (4th)
After handing Virginia a 66-47 loss on January 13th in Winston-Salem, Wake Forest lost three of its next four games, with each of those defeats coming on the road to quality opponents at NC State, North Carolina, and Pittsburgh. The Demon Deacons then won their next three games, scoring 80 or more in all three, before falling on the road at Duke in a hard-fought 77-69 defeat.
That brings us to this weekend's game, at which Wake Forest arrives with sole possession of fourth place in the ACC standings, just a game and a half below third-place Virginia with seven games left in the regular season. That makes this rematch extremely important for many reasons: the competitive race for the ACC regular season title with North Carolina and Duke just barely ahead of Virginia and Wake, the battle for the top four seeds and coveted double-byes in the ACC Tournament, and of course, resume-building for the NCAA Tournament.
In the first meeting between these two teams, one of many blowout losses the Cavaliers suffered in the first half of the season, Virginia's offense went ice cold, shooting 28.1% from the floor and 4/12 from beyond the arc, and its only double-digit scorer being Reece Beekman with 10 points on 12 shots. Wake Forest, meanwhile, shot 50.0% from the field and made 10 threes, getting 21 points from Hunter Sallis, 14 from Kevin Miller, and 12 from Andrew Carr. The Demon Deacons also dominated the rebounding battle 40-27 and outscored the Cavaliers 28-10 in the paint. Virginia forced 17 Wake Forest turnovers and scored 16 points off of those takeaways, but between UVA's cold shooting and Wake's hot shooting, the outcome was a 19-point loss for the Wahoos.
Jordan Minor was probably the lone true bright spot of that game for UVA with nine points, five rebounds, a block, and a steal in his first start of the season. Those were the humble beginnings of the critical turning point in Virginia's season, as the Cavaliers proceeded to win their next eight games, thanks in large part to the emergence of Minor as a reliable force in the front court. UVA will need a solid performance from Minor in order to win this rematch.
Wake Forest boasts the third-best scoring offense in the ACC at 80.3 points per game, the second-best offense in terms of field goal percentage and second-best three-point shooting team, trailing only Virginia. Wake is the ACC's best at the charity stripe, knocking down 79.9% of its free throws as a team.
Hunter Sallis is third in the ACC in scoring at 18.7 points per game and Kevin Miller is 12th at 15.7 points and also dishes out 3.9 assists per game. Cameron Hildreth brings a toughness and physicality to the guard position, while also averaging 14.0 points per game. Andrew Carr and Efton Reid make a formidable duo in the front court, with Carr as the prototypical stretch four and Reid as a tall and physical seven-foot rim protector. Ryan Dunn and Jordan Minor, as well as Jake Groves and Blake Buchanan, will need to be much better overall as a unit in this game than they were against Pitt on Tuesday.
Wake Forest has three players shooting better than 40% from three: Hunter Sallis, Andrew Carr, and freshman guard Parker Friedrichsen. Wake also recently got Damari Monsanto back after suffering a torn left patella tendon a full calendar year ago. Monsanto was a 13.3 points per game scorer and a 40.5% three-point shooter last season before his injury and has been steadily getting his feet back under him in the seven games since his return. He gives the Demon Deacons yet another dangerous three-point shooter the Cavaliers will have to keep track of in this rematch on Saturday.
What to Watch For
Guarding the three-point line.
Given the manner in which Virginia lost to Pittsburgh on Tuesday, surrendering 14 three-pointers on a hailstorm of 32 three-point attempts, it is essential that UVA improve both its three-point defense and its overall defensive performance from its last game. But that was always going to be an essential storyline in this game given Wake's abundant supply of three-point threats. Pittsburgh proved that even Virginia's previously unbeatable home court advantage could be toppled with enough three-pointers. The Demon Deacons will likely try to follow that formula to victory.
Get the crowd into it.
Speaking of home-court advantage, welcome back to John Paul Jones on a Saturday, UVA fans. Virginia played the last seven Saturdays on the road, a mystifying scheduling anomaly and perhaps a clerical error on the part of whoever is in charge of building the composite ACC men's basketball schedule in the league office. UVA's home crowd has been good even on weeknights this season, playing a role in what was once the nation's leading active home winning streak. But on Tuesday night, Pittsburgh took the home crowd out of the game late, as the Cavaliers lost their composure in the last several minutes and built a double-digit deficit by the end. Expect Saturday's game to be a close one between two of the top teams in the ACC, which means that a few momentum plays and a boost of energy from the crowd could be enough to carry the Cavaliers to the win.
Sweet, sweet revenge.
Twice this season the Cavaliers have faced teams who previously defeated them handily when UVA visited their gym. Virginia took advantage of both opportunities to avenge those lopsided losses, knocking off NC State in overtime and beating Notre Dame 65-53 on the final day of January. Now, the Cavaliers will look to make it 3-0 in revenge game opportunities as they look to even the season series with the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest is certainly not 19 points better than Virginia, but especially after Tuesday's humbling loss to Pittsburgh, UVA has to bring its A-game in order to beat a talented and well-coached Demon Deacon squad.
Prediction
This game is pivotal. Virginia is safely in the NCAA Tournament for now, but highly-challenging games loom on the horizon at Virginia Tech, at home against North Carolina, and at Duke in the final six games of the season. UVA also still holds an outside shot at the ACC regular season title and a high seed in the ACC Tournament. Most of that is true for Wake Forest as well. Every game is crucial at this point in the season, but this Saturday showdown will have massive implications. Virginia wins a close one.
Score prediction: Virginia 70, Wake Forest 68
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