2025 ACC Championship Matchup Preview and Final Score Prediction for Virginia vs Duke

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.
Watch: ABC TV

Virginia has already seen Duke once this season. Now the Cavaliers get the Blue Devils again in a game that actually decides something: an outright ACC championship and a real College Football Playoff spot.

The Hoos come to Charlotte at 10–2 overall and 7–1 in the ACC, riding a 27–7 win over Virginia Tech that felt like more than just a rivalry victory. Duke is 7-5 but 6-2 in conference play and survived an improbable five-way tiebreaker with SMU, Miami, Pitt, and Georgia Tech to end up in the Chip.

Virginia has not won an outright ACC title since 1989. There was a shared crown in 1995. That is the history hanging over this group as it tries to close out one of the best single-season turnarounds in college football and push Tony Elliott’s program into a different conversation.

Why This One Matters to Virginia

For Virginia, this game is about two things at once. It is a chance to put up a banner and test the program’s new identity. Elliott came into 2025 under real pressure after three straight seasons without a bowl. Instead of major staff changes, he leaned into continuity, trusted his core, and then went hard in the portal. That is how players like Chandler Morris and J’Mari Taylor ended up in Charlottesville and why Virginia looks and feels different.

The home upset of Florida State put the Hoos in the national spotlight. The series of close wins in the middle of the year kept them in the ACC race when the margin for error was almost gone. Then came the 34–17 win at Duke and the 20-point win over Virginia Tech, which together looked like the payoff that the “forefathers” of the roster had been working toward since Elliott’s first season.

Elliott has talked a lot about those older players, the ones who stayed when it would have been easy to leave and who had to buy into a vision before there was anything concrete to show for it. This game is for them as much as anyone.

For Duke, this is a chance to flip the story back in their direction. Manny Diaz has a quarterback in Tulane transfer Darian Mensah who can go toe-to-toe with almost anyone. The Blue Devils have been up and down all season, good enough at times to scare or beat high-level teams but never consistent enough to rank every week. They were “thoroughly outclassed” in their first shot at Virginia, by Diaz’s own words, but they did enough across the schedule to earn a rematch.

Miami might be the highest-ranked ACC team, but the league’s automatic Playoff path runs through this game. Both teams know that.

What Happened In Durham The First Time

Virginia 34, Duke 17 on Nov. 15 at Wallace Wade Stadium:

Total yards: Virginia 540, Duke 255
Third downs: Virginia 12-for-19, Duke 4-for-15
Rushing: Virginia 224 yards, Duke 42 yards

Morris threw for 316 yards and two touchdowns, but also had two interceptions, including a pick-six that kept the score closer. Taylor ran for 133 yards and two scores, including a 78-yard touchdown that broke the game open. Virginia’s line controlled the game, exposing Duke’s tackling issues.
Virginia’s defense stopped the run and forced Mensah into his least efficient game. The Cavaliers dominated third downs, staying ahead of schedule while Duke struggled to find rhythm.

Nov 15, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back J'Mari Taylor (3) scores a touchdown against the Duke Blue Devils during the third quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Diaz has already said that the rematch is less about drawing up a brand new scheme and more about simply playing better. He gave Virginia credit for forcing Duke into mistakes and for controlling the line of scrimmage. Elliott has taken the opposite approach, saying his team has to throw out what happened in Durham and treat this week as a brand-new matchup.

Advanced Analytics: Tight Win Probabilities, Clear Efficiency Edge

The analytics models see Virginia as the better team, but they are not calling this a mismatch.

ESPN’s FPI gives Virginia a 56.3% chance to win, with Duke at 43.7%.
DraftKings lists Virginia as a 4-point favorite with a total of 57.5 points.

The efficiency numbers inside Virginia’s game notes make it easier to see why the Hoos are slightly favored.

Virginia comes into Charlotte:

Top 30 nationally in total offense and total defense, averaging 433.2 yards per game on offense and allowing 311.7 yards per game on defense.

Scoring 33.2 points per game while giving up 20.0 points per game, which puts them near the top of the ACC on both sides.

They have been money on third down. The offense converts about 49% of its third downs, a top 15 mark nationally, while the defense holds opponents to 27% on third down, which is good for No. 2 in the country.

Virginia is also on the plus side in turnovers and wins a lot of the hidden yardage. The Hoos have only 11 giveaways all season and sit well inside the top 20 in turnover margin. They lead the country in kickoff return average and are top 10 in kickoff return defense, so field position usually tilts their way.

Duke’s advanced profile is almost the inverse. Mensah drives an explosive passing game that sits near the top of the ACC, with around 289 passing yards per game and one of the highest touchdown totals in the league. The Blue Devils’ passing offense can stress any secondary when it is hot.

Defensively, Duke gives up more than 400 yards per game and over 33 points per game. That is the problem the analytics keep bumping into. The Blue Devils can absolutely turn games into shootouts, but their defense has not consistently held up, even against teams less balanced than Virginia.

So the models land in the middle: Virginia has the efficiency edge, especially on normal downs and third downs, but Duke’s explosive passing game and a veteran quarterback tilt things just enough to keep this from looking like a 70–30 type matchup.

Virginia’s Offense vs. Duke’s Defense

Virginia’s offensive identity is pretty straightforward: balanced, but it all starts with running the ball.

The Hoos average 188.7 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry. Taylor leads the way with 997 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns on 207 carries. Behind him, there is depth with backs like Harrison Waylee and Xavier Brown, and Morris himself has added five rushing scores.

In the first meeting, Virginia’s offensive line controlled the game. The Cavaliers piled up 224 rushing yards and were living in manageable down and distance situations for most of the night. When you are constantly in third and three instead of third and nine, everything in the playbook stays available, and the odds start to tilt your way. That is exactly what happened in Durham.

In the passing game, Morris has thrown for 2,586 yards with 14 touchdowns while completing 65.9% of his passes. The approach is not about one or two huge downfield shots every drive.

Trell Harris has been the main target with 56 catches for 809 yards and five touchdowns. He already torched Duke once with eight catches for 161 yards and a score. Cam Ross, Jahmal Edrine, the tight ends, and Taylor out of the backfield round out a group that can hurt you in different ways.

Duke’s biggest issues defensively all season have been tackling in space and limiting explosive plays after the catch. Virginia does not need to call four verts every snap to hammer those weaknesses. If Morris is getting the ball out on time, Harris and Ross are winning on the perimeter, and Taylor is active in the screen-and-checkdown game, Duke will be forced to walk more defenders into the box, which opens up play-action and shot opportunities.

The main thing for Virginia here is the same thing it has been all year. Protect Morris and avoid the one or two decisions per game that flip momentum. Virginia has given up only 16 sacks this season through 12 games. If that holds and Morris stays reasonably clean, the offense should again find ways to move the ball.

Duke’s Offense vs. Virginia’s Defense

Mensah is the piece that gives Duke a real chance. He entered the final week of the regular season as the ACC leader in passing yards per game and passing touchdowns. The Blue Devils are built around his arm. When he is in rhythm, they can score with anyone.

Virginia’s first priority is the same as it was three weeks ago. The Cavaliers want to make Duke one-dimensional. That starts with stopping the run.

Virginia allows just over 108 rushing yards per game and about 3.3 yards per carry, with a run defense inside the national top 25. With Jahmeer Carter, Jason Hammond, and the rest of the front, this group has been steady all year at winning early downs and forcing opponents into passing situations they do not want. Combine that with the second-best third-down defense in the country, and you get a unit that is constantly getting off the field.

On the back end, Devin Neal is still the tone setter, leading the team with 70 tackles, and Christian Charles has quietly put together his best year with 41 stops and a pass breakup in four straight games. As a unit, Virginia is holding opponents to about 203.4 passing yards per game and has come up with 12 interceptions. There is not one guy who is plastered all over the national award lists, but the room is deep, they trust a lot of bodies, and they have generally held up in one-on-one spots when it matters.

Duke will still stress Virginia with tempo, formations, and depth at receiver. Mensah is capable of converting third and long with his arm or his legs, so the Cavaliers will need to keep rush lane discipline and tackle well in space.

Final Prediction

Logic says it is hard to blow out a good quarterback twice in three weeks, especially when the first game was as one-sided in the box score as Virginia’s win in Durham. Duke has had time to study what went wrong, and Virginia is coming off an emotional high after beating Virginia Tech with real stakes on the line.

Even with all of that, the matchup still leans toward Virginia. The Hoos are better on standard downs, better on third downs, and better at running the ball and stopping the run. Their special teams are stronger. Their turnover profile is cleaner. Those are the pieces that usually matter in neutral-site championship settings.

Duke will almost certainly hit more in the passing game this time. Mensah is too good to put up another inefficient outing. That is why a closer score makes sense. But over four quarters, Taylor on the ground, Harris stretching the field, Morris extending plays, and that Virginia defense getting off the field on third down should be enough.

Prediction: Virginia 34, Duke 30.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.