ESPN FPI Predicts Virginia's Remaining Schedule After Their Win over Undefeated Louisville

Virginia, led by their defense, improved to 5-1 on the season after taking down the Louisville Cardinals on the road. The Hoo's defensive unit forced two turnovers that led to scores. Virginia is now riding two ACC overtime wins in a row as they prepare to take on a Washington State team they should have no real trouble with.

Before the season, ESPN's FPI predicted Virginia to finish with a 6-6 record. How much has the win total changed as UVA continues to cement themselves as a top team in the conference?

Game 7 vs Washington State - FPI gives Virginia a 95% chance to win this game (95% last week)

Virginia, Virginia Football, Virginia Cavaliers — Sep 20, 2025; Pullman, Washington, USA; Washington Huskies linebacker Taariq Al-Uqdah (3) tries to get to Washington State Cougars quarterback Zevi Eckhaus (4) in the first half of Apple Cup at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-Imagn Images | James Snook-Imagn Images

The odds remain the same here for this week. Washington State is not a great team this year, probably worse off than Stanford. Virginia keeps proving how dangerous they can be each week as both sides of the ball prove themselves in crucial situations. UVA should easily handle the Cougars.

Game 8 vs North Carolina - FPI gives Virginia an 87% chance to win this game (83% last week)

North Carolina's season continues to fly off the rails. At 2-3, backup quarterback Max Johnson got his shot to start this week with starter Gio Lopez ruled out. Johnson was accurate but did not get anything really going for the Tar Heels' offense. UNC dropped their first ACC game of the season by four scores to Clemson.

Game 9 vs California - FPI gives Virginia a 72% chance to win this game (67% for Cal last week)

Cal ran into an issue last week in Duke. The Golden Bears fall to a 1-1 ACC record after true freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele threw three interceptions. Cal was up 21-7 in the second quarter before being shut out in the second half.

Game 10 vs Wake Forest - FPI gives Virginia a 86% chance to win this game (90% last week)

Wake Forest sees a slight shift of odds in their direction after their second win in a row, taking down ACC opponent Virginia Tech. Wake Forest took down VT on the road on the back of a 250-yard passing performance from quarterback Robby Ashford. Ashford has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the ACC this year, tossing two touchdowns to four interceptions on 60% passing.

Game 11 vs Duke - FPI gives Duke a 59% chance to win this game (51% last week)

Similarly to UVA, Duke continues to impress. Duke has handled two ACC teams and one Big Ten program in a row, easily. The Blue Devils have looked like a different team since their back-to-back losses to Illinois and Tulane early in the season. Quarterback Darian Mensah leads the ACC in passing yards (1,838), completions (143) and touchdowns (15).

Game 12 vs Virginia Tech - FPI gives Virginia a 82% chance to win this game (78% last week)

As I mentioned earlier, Virginia Tech fell to Wake Forest in Week Six dropping to a 2-4 record. Virginia Tech quarterback Kyron Drones seemed to get out-dueled by Wake Forest's Robby Ashford. The Hokies' offense ranks amongst the worst in the conference due mostly to a bottom-three passing attack. Virginia easily has the edge in this rivalry this year, if all goes according to plan for the Hoo's.

PROJECTED RECORD: 10-2