ESPN's FPI Predicts Virginia's Remaining Games After Week Four ACC Win

What does the rest of the Hoo's season look like as conference play is officially upon us?

Sep 20, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) passes the ball to Cavaliers wide receiver Cam Ross (6) as Stanford Cardinal linebacker Ese Dubre (30) chases during the second quarter at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Virginia's offense continues to impress even as the quality of competition has began to take a step up in the 2025 season. UVA opened up conference regular season play with an emphatic four-score win over Stanford in Week Four.

Before the season, ESPN's FPI predicted Virginia to finish the season with a 6-6 record. Did that win total change after this week's ACC victory over the Stanford Cardinals?

Game 5 vs Florida State- FPI gives Florida State a 60% chance to win this game (61% last week)

Sep 20, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Kent State Golden Flashes quarterback Dru DeShields (12) is hit as he throws the ball by Florida State Seminoles defensive lineman Mandrell Desir (93) during the first half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

FPI's odds are pretty much the same as last week. Both of these teams handled business but I think Virginia's performance against Stanford was way more surprising than FSU's easy win over Kent State. This matchup should be a great barometer for just how talented this Cavaliers' team really is.

Game 6 vs Louisville- FPI gives Louisville a 57% chance to win this game (63% last week)

Louisville Cardinals place kicker Cooper Ranvier (36) and Louisville Cardinals place kicker David Chapeau (93) mimics making a basketball shot after Ranvier's field goal was good as the Cards (3-0) cruised past Bowling Green 40-17 in football Saturday, Sept. 20, 2025, in Louisville, Kentucky | Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This Louisville offense and quarterbackk Miller Moss can put up a lot of points. However, once again - I think this Virginia offense has shown they are also an extremely effective unit. Louisville has yet to play any real competition but their matchup against Pitt this week should be an accurate test of how they can stack up against Virginia.

Game 7 vs Washington State- FPI gives Virginia an 96% chance to win this game (94% last week)

Sep 20, 2025; Pullman, Washington, USA; Washington Huskies running back Adam Mohammed (24) carries the ball against the Washington State Cougars in the second half of Apple Cup at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Washington Huskies won 59-24. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-Imagn Images | James Snook-Imagn Images

Washington State sits at a .500 record through four games. The two losses came against decent programs in North Texas and Washington. The Hoo's are easily better than those teams so this should really be a blowout for UVA.

Game 8 vs North Carolina- FPI gives Virginia a 80% chance to win this game (69% last week)

Sep 20, 2025; Orlando, Florida, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Gio Lopez (7) warms up before the game against the UCF Knights at the Bounce House Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images | Mike Watters-Imagn Images

Despite locking in football legend Bill Belichick to coach this Tar Heels team, this offense is in shambles. Quarterback Gio Lopez continues to prove he is not the answer in Chapel Hill. I think it is a matter of time until Max Johnson is brought in at quarterback. Not to mention, this UNC defense just got torched by dual-threat quarterback Tayven Jackson, which is a good sign for Chandler Morris.

Game 9 vs California- FPI gives Cal a 67% chance to win this game (58% last week)

Sep 6, 2025; Berkeley, California, USA; California Golden Bears quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (3) rolls out during the second quarter against the Texas Southern Tigers at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Cal has one of the brightest true freshman quarterbacks in the country in Jaron-Keawe
Sagapolutele. However, a rough performance against San Diego State showed he can easily be contained. I don't see Sagapolutele out-dueling a veteran like Chandler Morris even if the game is being played in the Golden State.

Game 10 vs Wake Forest- FPI gives Virginia an 90% chance to win this game (87% last week)

Sep 11, 2025; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack wide receiver Terrell Anderson (9) catches a pass against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in second half at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Luke Jamroz-Imagn Images | Luke Jamroz-Imagn Images

Wake Forest looks like they will once again be dwelling at the bottom of the ACC. The Demon Deacons only beat a historically bad Kennesaw State team by one point in a game they were originally favored by 17.5 points. They also looked outmatched in their first ACC matchup against NC State. Another easy win for UVA.

Game 11 vs Duke- FPI gives Virginia a 61% chance to win this game (51% last week)

Sep 20, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarter back Darian Mensah (10) throws the ball during the first quarter against the NC State Wolfpack at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

This should be a great ACC game later in the season if the next few weeks play out how they are supposed to. Quarterback Darian Mensah is one of the most talented signal callers in the ACC and the entire country. I am excited to see how veteran Chandler Morris stacks up against Mensah but I think it's a matter of who's defense will step up in this one.

Game 12 vs Virginia Tech- FPI gives Virginia a 80% chance to win this game (74% last week)

Sep 20, 2025; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies tight end Benji Gosnell (82) hugs running back Braydon Bennett (24) after he scores a touchdown during the first quarter against the Wofford Terriers at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bishop-Imagn Images | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

Oh, boy. While Virginia Tech did earn their first win of the season against a sorry Wofford team, this program is in a rough place right now. Quarterback Kyron Drones looks alright but is not showing he is the leader the VT coaching staff was hoping for. This Hokies' run defense is also horrendous so UVA should do their thing in the final week.