Latest College Football Bowl Projections For Virginia After Week Two Loss to NC State

Where is Virginia projected to play this postseason now that they are 1-1?

Sep 6, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) runs with the football during the first half of the game against North Carolina State Wolfpack at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

Virginia went on the road and put up a good fight, but the Cavaliers could not defeat NC State. UVA put up over 500 yards of offense, but a couple of failed red zone trips and their inability to pressure the quarterback and stop the run were their undoing. Now, Virginia will look to regroup at home vs William & Mary this Saturday in Charlottesville.

Postseason still a possibility?

Sep 6, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) prepares to throw the football during the first half of the game against North Carolina State Wolfpack at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

Despite the loss to NC State, UVA still has a very favorable path to a bowl game. They face one of the easiest schedules in the country and there are plenty of winnable games for them. They still have what they need to make the first bowl game of the Tony Elliott era and in the latest projections from ESPN, Virginia is going to face an SEC foe they have not faced in 50 years.

ESPN's Mark Schlabach is projecting to Virginia to play Vanderbilt in the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl. The Commodores are 2-0 after beating Virginia Tech 44-20 in Lane Stadium and Clark Lea's team is playing with a lot of momentum right now after that victory. It would be a very stiff test for Virginia if this matchup were to ever happen, but the Cavaliers have a long way to go before that happens.

Heavy favorites this week

Sep 6, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers wide receiver TyLyric Coleman (17) clutches his hand during the second half of the game against North Carolina State Wolfpack at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

As you would expect, Virginia is going to be a heavy favorite this weekend. In the updated SP+ projections from ESPN, Virginia is expected to win 40-12, and the Cavaliers have been given a 96% chance to win the game.

When you lose a game, naturally, you are going to drop in the rankings, whether they are actual rankings or advanced analytics. That is the case for Virginia. The Hoos shot up in ESPN's FPI last week after their win over Coastal Carolina, but this week they dropped three spots to 53rd. NC State, Virginia Tech, Duke, Syracuse, Stanford, North Carolina, and Wake Forest were the ACC teams that were ranked lower than UVA.

Can UVA bounce back?

Sep 6, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers tight end Sage Ennis (0) runs with the football by North Carolina State Wolfpack safety Brody Barnhardt (29), cornerback Brian Nelson II (7) and cornerback Jackson Vick (22) during the first half of the game at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

While the loss to NC State is certainly disappointing, Virginia head coach Tony Elliott says this team still has its goals in front of them:

"And so going back to that question that we were at a lot we convert a lot of third -longs and have no sacks All right, and the quarterback didn't get hit much, you know versus that front and so just guys executing, giving the quarterback protection in the pocket and guys being where they're supposed to be and then the quarterback being dialed in on the defensive structure to know where to go through his progression and the guys made some plays. The guys went down sliding up balls, balls up over their head, man, they made the quarterback right, and it was a beautiful thing to see, but hopefully that gives the last two games we've been, you know, over 50 % on third down, which we're going to need to be throughout better in the red zone. We've got to make those field goals in the red zone. And in Will Bettridge, he'll go to work, and he'll find a way to put it through the uprights. And we're going to continue to give him opportunities to kick. So I know there's no moral victories, but we're going to get on this bus. We're not going to have our heads down. We're going to stay encouraged. We're going to stay positive. My challenge to the team is we either get better, we get better, or we either get defined by this game, or we get developed, and I'm choosing to get better, I'm choosing to get developed, and I believe those guys are going to do the same thing."

Elliott is right in saying that the goals for Virginia are still in front of them, but there are plenty of issues to fix, particularly on defense. The next two games are very winnable, but tough tests against Florida State and Louisville remain. Can the issues be fixed by then?