Matchup Preview and Final Score Prediction for No. 12 Virginia vs. Wake Forest

Kickoff: Saturday, Nov. 8, 7:00 p.m. ET, Scott Stadium (ESPN)

Virginia comes home from the cross-country trip to Berkeley with momentum and a shot to keep the clean ACC record intact. The Cavaliers have strung together seven straight wins, are 5–0 in league play, and have turned Scott Stadium into a real edge on primetime Saturdays. This is the kind of November game that tests maturity: short week of travel, a disciplined opponent with a top-tier defense, and the noise that comes with a mid-season climb into the CFP conversation.

Why This One Matters

Wake has had Virginia’s number lately, taking five of the last six in the series and the last two in Charlottesville. That’s the recent history UVA is trying to flip. A win keeps the Hoos in full control of their path to Charlotte with only two ACC games left after this. It also extends a perfect home record in 2025 and continues a season-long trend: Virginia has closed games exceptionally well, pitching multiple fourth-quarter shutouts and leaning on a defense that gets stingier the deeper it goes. Style points don’t matter as much as stacking wins, but the stakes here are obvious: protect home turf, stay unbeaten in the league, and stay on schedule in November.

The Headline Matchup: UVA’s scoring punch vs. Wake’s scoring defense

This is strength on strength. Virginia enters with one of the ACC’s top scoring offenses, averaging 37 a game and crossing 30 in seven of nine. Wake counters with the conference’s No. 2 scoring defense, holding four of eight opponents under 15. That means margins will come from little things—first-down efficiency, avoiding negative plays, and winning field position.

Chandler Morris has been the difference for Virginia all fall. The completion rate is high, the decision-making has grown cleaner, and his ability to turn a dead play into five positive yards has bailed out the offense more than once. He can’t drift into hero-ball; this is a week to be on time and in rhythm, take the available throws, and live for second-and-manageable. Protection will be the subplot. The line has settled despite injuries, and the plan should help them: quick game to Cam Ross, glance routes and RPOs to Trell Harris, and the occasional shot when Wake gets heavy in the box.

Nov 1, 2025; Berkeley, California, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back J'Mari Taylor (3) breaks a big gainer against the California Golden Bears during the second quarter at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images | D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

On the ground, J’Mari Taylor is having an All-ACC season. Eleven rushing touchdowns, a fresh 100-yard outing at Cal, and the kind of acceleration into contact that turns three into six. His vision in inside zone has improved, and when Virginia gets him downhill off duo with a tight end insert, the offense stays ahead of schedule. Harrison Waylee’s change-up speed forces the second level to stay honest. If UVA gets its normal mix of five- and seven-yard runs, the playbook opens and the tempo climbs.

When Wake Has The Ball

The Deacs will build around Demond Claiborne’s burst and a clean, physical approach up front. He has three 100-yard games and can bounce a crease into an explosive when backside pursuit misses. Virginia’s answer is the second-level tackling that’s carried this winning streak. Kam Robinson has been everywhere - safeties, pick-sixes, drive-killing TFLs - and his timing as a green-dog blitzer has shown up in money spots. Ja’Son Prevard’s range has erased a lot of crossers and forced quarterbacks to throw late to the sideline.

The quiet story of the defense is how often it wins early downs. When UVA gets opponents into third and 7+, the front can heat you up without selling out. That showed at Cal and in multiple fourth quarters this season. If the Hoos bottle Claiborne on first down, Wake will be forced to live off play-action and tight windows outside. That’s where Virginia has feasted on tips and overthrows, and where the turnover margin tends to tilt.

FPI and the Numbers

ESPN’s Football Power Index leans toward Virginia at 78.5%. The Matchup Predictor strongly favors the home team, consistent with how the model views UVA’s offense and late-game defense. Add in the program’s recent primetime form at Scott and the efficiency profile checks out: high third-down conversion volume on offense, low fourth-quarter points allowed on defense, and a turnover margin that has held steady through the win streak. The numbers aren’t the game, but they do line up with what we’ve watched the last six weeks.

What’s at Stake

This is a leverage game in the ACC race. Win, and Virginia moves to 6–0 in the league with two conference dates left and a clear line to Charlotte. ESPN’s analytics had the Cavaliers in the mid-60s percent to reach the title game this week; another result at home nudges that higher and reduces the path to scoreboard watching. It’s also a perception game. The initial CFP ranking at No. 14 signaled respect but not much cushion. The ACC won’t get extra credit for close calls, so the way forward is simple: keep stacking wins, keep the scoreboard in the 20s and 30s for UVA, and keep fourth quarters quiet for the opponent. Do that, and the national conversation will take care of itself.

Keys to a Virginia win

Stay on schedule. Wake’s defense thrives when it forces third-and-long. Virginia can blunt that with quick, high-percentage completions early like a bubble and stick to Ross, glance to Harris, the occasional tight end pop, and with Taylor’s efficient interior game. The second and fifth are where UVA’s RPO menu shines.

Keep Morris clean and decisive. He doesn’t need to be a superhero; he needs to be precise. The shoulder has been managed well, and the staff has been smart with their designed movements, cutting the field and keeping him out of crowded pockets. If the ball comes out on time and the sacks stay down, Virginia will own possession.

Nov 16, 2024; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish defensive lineman Bryce Young (30) attempts to block a punt by Virginia Cavaliers punter Daniel Sparks (38) in the first quarter at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-Imagn Images | Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

Win the hidden yards. Daniel Sparks has been a field-position weapon, and the coverage units have been sharp. In a low-margin game, one 48-yard punt out of bounds at the 9 or a 45-yard Will Bettridge kick is the difference between “tight” and “two-score cushion.” Family Weekend and the primetime crowd can help here, too, as it did with Washington State: noise on third down, communication stress for the visitors, and the cumulative effect that shows up in the fourth.

Finish, again. Everything Virginia has done well this year has crescendoed late. Close the space in the run fits, keep leverage outside, and make Wake string together 10-play drives. This defense’s superpower has been making you earn it in the last 15 minutes.

X-factors to watch

1. Cam Ross on early downs. When he touches it early in drives, UVA tends to stay in phase. His chemistry with Morris on quick-outs and glance has been automatic.

2. Trell Harris in the red zone. Harris has been a problem on fades and slants from condensed splits. If Wake commits extra hats to the box against Taylor inside the 20, Harris’ body control can punish single coverage.

3. Claiborne vs. pursuit angles. If Virginia overpursues, Claiborne can turn a modest crease into a 25-yarder. If the Hoos fit cleanly and tackle on contact, Wake will be behind the sticks.

4. Turnover margin. It has been a weekly separator. Robinson’s instincts and the secondary’s patience on late-down throws have produced back-breaking swings.

Outlook

Expect a chess match early as Wake’s front is trying to choke off the inside zone, while Virginia answers with quick-rhythm throws and formations that stress the flats. As the game settles, the Hoos’ balance should take hold. Taylor’s patience inside, Waylee’s burst when he gets a crease, and Morris’s ability to extend just enough plays to keep drives alive all add up over four quarters. Wake will have a couple of shots off play-action; if UVA survives those without giving up explosives, the Deacs will struggle to find 24 in this building.

Final Score Prediction

Virginia 27, Wake Forest 17.

The Cavaliers’ formula of controlling possession, capitalizing in the red zone, and closing out games on defense should prevail again under the primetime lights. This prediction reflects confidence in Virginia’s ability to maintain control and move one step closer to Charlotte with another solid win. As the regular season winds down, the Cavaliers are showing the consistency and resilience needed to contend in the ACC and make a run at the title game. With focus and execution, the momentum from this game can set the tone for what’s ahead.

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