Matchup Preview and Final Score Prediction for No. 17 Virginia vs. Virginia Tech

Kickoff: Saturday, Nov. 29, 7 p.m. ET, Scott Stadium (ESPN)

Why This One Matters

Everything Virginia has been building toward all year now runs through one night at Scott Stadium. The Cavaliers sit at 9–2 overall and 6–1 in ACC play, sitting atop the league standings and ranked No. 17 in the AP poll after stacking wins over Cal, North Carolina, Washington State, and a statement upset of No. 8 Florida State. Beat Virginia Tech, and Virginia is headed to Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game, with the College Football Playoff at least lingering in the background. Lose, and a season that has already blown past preseason expectations suddenly feels incomplete.

Virginia Tech is 3–8 (2–5 ACC), but the record alone doesn't tell the story. The Hokies have lost three straight but won four in a row in this rivalry. They're entering Charlottesville with nothing to lose and a real chance to spoil Virginia’s best season since 2019.

Tony Elliott's message all year: focus on the week, ignore the noise. That’s harder than ever. He made clear this week that he cares more about film than tiebreakers.

Nov 8, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott (right) greets Wake Forest Demon Deacons head coach Jake Dickert (left) after their game at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

“I really don’t know what the tiebreaker is for the conference championship. I don’t know where we’re ranked. I really don’t look at that stuff because again, at the end of the day, all that matters is finding a way to win,” Elliott said. “If I’m over here worrying about what the stats are, then I’m missing an opportunity to study more tape on their left guard. That is the kind of thing I focus on. What matters is wins and losses, and that is what we are focused on.”

The math is simple now. Virginia wins the Commonwealth Clash, and the Hoos go to Charlotte with a chance to turn a dream schedule into a dream season.

Virginia’s Offense vs. Virginia Tech’s Defense

On paper, this is the side of the ball where Virginia can really separate. The Cavaliers come in averaging 33.7 points per game, which ranks 26th nationally, with a balanced attack that piles up 250.1 passing yards and 187.9 rushing yards per game. They are top 15 in points per play at 0.5 and top 15 in third down conversion rate at 49.2 percent. That efficiency has been the biggest leap for this offense.

Chandler Morris has been the X factor all year. This is his last game at Scott Stadium, his last shot against Virginia Tech, and everyone in the building knows he holds a huge share of the outcome in his hands. Elliott let his captain address the team this week, and Morris leaned straight into the moment.

“He talked about the importance of this game, playing in Scott Stadium for the last time, how important that is to him, and to a lot of the guys that have been here before him,” Elliott said. “It is a game of significance. It is a state championship. It is a rivalry game.”

Nov 15, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back J'Mari Taylor (3) scores a touchdown against the Duke Blue Devils during the third quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Morris will see a Hokies defense that has struggled to get off the field. Virginia Tech is allowing 30.5 points per game, 111th nationally, and is near the bottom of the FBS on third down, giving up conversions 44.4 percent of the time.

That mismatch in situational football is glaring. UVA has consistently stayed ahead of the sticks, using early down runs by J’Mari Taylor to set up manageable second and third downs. Taylor has turned into one of the best backs in the ACC, leading the league with 917 rushing yards while running with the same blend of vision, balance, and toughness that showed up on his NC Central tape. Elliott keeps coming back to the same description.

“First of all, available. He finds a way to stay healthy,” Elliott said. “His ability has really come to light, especially at this level in this league. His ability to make people miss, his ability to run behind his pads, his ability to have the vision to find the cuts, and he is just a competitor.”

Behind an offensive line that entered the year with more than 300 career appearances and 200 career starts, Virginia has controlled the line of scrimmage in most games, even after losing Monroe Mills for the season. That group will be tested by Virginia Tech’s front, but the numbers say Virginia should win this matchup more often than not. If Morris stays on schedule, avoids the one or two reckless throws that have hurt him in past games, and Taylor keeps Virginia ahead of the chains, the Hoos should be able to live in the high twenties or low thirties again.

Virginia Tech’s Offense vs. Virginia’s Defense

Kyron Drones Virginia Tec — Nov 22, 2025; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Kyron Drones (1) looks to pass against the Miami (FL) Hurricanes during the first quarter at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bishop-Imagn Images | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

If Virginia has the edge on one side, this one could be a grind for the Hokies. Virginia Tech leans on its run game, averaging 188.2 rushing yards (31st nationally), to support a passing attack that is 116th at 174.4 yards per game and just 6.3 yards per attempt.

The problem for the Hokies is that Virginia has quietly become one of the most efficient defenses in the nation. The Cavaliers allow only 21.2 points and 108.0 rushing yards per game, ranking 36th and 23rd nationally. On a per-play basis, they allow 0.3 points, ninth best in the FBS, which matches up extremely well against a Virginia Tech offense that also averages only 0.3 points per play and sits 99th nationally.

Inside the tackles is where this game may be decided. Virginia’s front, led by Jahmeer Carter and Daniel Rickert, is the defense’s foundation. Carter and Rickert bring eighty combined starts, the most of any defensive line duo in the country, turning early downs into passing situations for the back seven to make plays.

The big question is how the Hoos handle the loss of Kam Robinson. The star linebacker’s season-ending injury has forced Landon Danley into a bigger role, and so far, he has responded. Danley piled up six tackles at Duke and tied for the team lead that night, looking more comfortable with his keys and eye discipline each week. Elliott sees a player who has finally let the game slow down.

“You saw the last game he played versus Duke. He went right in there, ended up, I think, leading us in tackles or being tied for leading tackles in the game,” Elliott said. “There is a lot of eye discipline that it takes, and you have seen the maturity and the growth from that standpoint.”

Virginia has also quietly closed games much better than in past seasons. The Cavaliers have outscored opponents 48–43 in the fourth quarter and 72–55 when you include overtime, and they have allowed only two fourth-quarter touchdowns in their last five games while going 3–0 in overtime contests. For a Virginia Tech offense that already struggles to create explosive plays through the air, trying to chase against this defense late is not a spot the Hokies want to be in.

X-Factors

Chandler Morris is the obvious one. This is his last run in Charlottesville and his one shot at the Hokies after transferring in for one year, a move that has already changed the program's trajectory. When he has stayed healthy and taken what the defense gives him, Virginia’s offense has looked like a top twenty unit. When he has pressed, the turnovers have piled up. His emotions will be running high on Saturday night, and how he channels that will set the tone for the entire team.

Landon Danley now plays the most important game of his career with the biggest hole on the defense sitting right in his lap. Virginia Tech will try to stress him with misdirection, motion, and gap schemes in the run game. If he diagnoses quickly, fits the run and tackles cleanly, the Hokies are going to struggle to live in third-and-short. If his eyes wander, Virginia Tech can keep the playbook open.

J’Mari Taylor has already become the kind of back who wears down a defense over four quarters. Against a Hokies front that sits 73rd against the run and has had trouble getting stops on early downs, Taylor’s ability to turn two-yard runs into five and stay on the field every series is huge.

Odds and Analytics

Most sportsbooks have Virginia around a 9.5-point favorite at home, with a total in the mid-50s, generally around 53.5. That lines up almost perfectly with how each team has played this year. Virginia games have averaged 54.9 total points, just a tick above this week’s number, while Virginia Tech games have averaged 52.2.

Against the spread, the Cavaliers have been one of the better teams in the ACC. They are 7–4 overall and 3–2 when favored by at least 9.5 points, with a 6–1 record straight up as a favorite. At home, they are 4–2 against the number, and their implied team total at Scott Stadium has sat around the mid-thirties all season. Virginia Tech is just 3–8 against the spread, 1–3 on the road, and has covered in only one of five games as an underdog this fall.

From a pure numbers standpoint, the efficiency gap is even more striking than the Vegas line. Virginia’s offense sits 12th nationally in points per play at 0.5 and pairs that with a defense that is ninth in points per play allowed at 0.3. The Hokies, by contrast, give up 0.5 points per play and score only 0.3 points per play, putting them in the bottom quarter of the FBS on both sides of the ball. When you put those profiles into efficiency-based models like ESPN’s Football Power Index and Bill Connelly’s SP+ style metrics, the team with the stronger per-play margin usually comes out as a comfortable favorite at home.

Back in the summer, ESPN’s FPI ranked Virginia’s 2025 schedule 83rd nationally, the lowest in the power four, and projected only a 71.4 percent chance that the Cavaliers would make a bowl game with 7–5 as the most likely record. At 9–2 and sitting 17th in the AP poll, Virginia has already blown past that baseline. The same underlying trends that led FPI and similar models to call this a breakout opportunity are now even stronger after wins over Florida State, North Carolina, and Cal.

You do not need the spreadsheets to see why this week’s number sits where it does. Virginia is the more efficient offense, the better defense, and the deeper team in the trenches. The analytics and the betting market are aligned in viewing the Hoos as clear favorites. The question is whether Virginia can handle the pressure of expectation in a rivalry where the emotional swings are always bigger than the gap on paper.

Path To Charlotte and Final Prediction

The path is simple for Virginia now. Beat Virginia Tech, and the Hoos are off to Charlotte with an ACC Championship shot that felt like a fantasy back in August. Lose, and they still finish with a strong season, but one that will be remembered as falling short of what the numbers, the schedule, and the start of conference play made possible.

Virginia Tech will not roll over. Rivalry games rarely follow the script, and the Hokies have been the more physical team in this series too often for anyone in Charlottesville to feel fully comfortable. Expect Pry’s team to empty the playbook, lean on the run, and try to shorten the game.

Still, this looks like the year Virginia finally breaks through. Morris has too many weapons, Taylor and the offensive line have too much of an edge against a leaky run defense, and the Cavaliers' defense has become too consistent on a down-to-down basis to let a struggling Virginia Tech offense hang around forever. It may feel tight early, but over four quarters, the depth and efficiency should show up.

Final prediction: Virginia 31, Virginia Tech 24

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