Newest SP+ Rankings From ESPN Project Virginia Football As A Bottom Three-Team In The ACC This Season

Nov 9, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott reacts on the sidelines against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the second quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

While most can agree on the top teams in the ACC heading into the 2025 season, the rest of the conference seems to be a muddled-up picture with no real differences between most teams. Clemson, Miami, SMU, and Louisville are the top teams to begin the season, but what about everyone else?

The newest SP+ Rankings from ESPN's Bill Connelly were released this morning and it paints that exact picture. There is a clear top of the ACC, a jumbled middle, and then the bottom.

The bottom is unfortunately where you will find Virginia. SP+ is not a believer in the Cavaliers heading into the 2025 season and does not appear optimistic about Tony Elliott ending the bowl drought in Charlottesville. To start the season, Virginia is beginning the year at No. 79 overall in the country, with the No. 90 projected offense, No. 70 projected defense, and No. 56 projected special teams unit.

What is SP+? Here is how ESPN analyst Bill Connelly (creator of SP+) describes it:

"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

Here is how SP+ sees the ACC in the latest update:

1. Clemson (No. 8 overall)

2. Miami (No. 12)

3. SMU (No. 20)

4. Louisville (No. 24)

5. Florida State (No. 36)

6. Duke (No. 41)

7. NC State (No. 42)

8. Georgia Tech (No. 44)

9. Virginia Tech (No. 46)

10. Pittsburgh (No. 47)

11. North Carolina (No. 54)

12. Syracuse (No. 56)

13. Boston College (No. 62)

14. California (No. 65)

15. Virginia (No. 79)

16. Wake Forest (No. 81)

17. Stanford (No. 88)

Here is how Virginia's 2025 schedule looks from an SP+ perspective:

Aug. 30th- Coastal Carolina (No. 95 overall)

Sept. 6th- NC State (No. 42)

Sept. 20th- Stanford (No. 88)

Sept. 26th- Florida State (No. 36)

Oct. 4th- Louisville (No. 24)

Oct. 18th- Washington State (82nd)

Oct. 25th- North Carolina (No. 54)

Nov. 1st- California (No. 65)

Nov. 8th- Wake Forest (No. 81)

Nov. 15th- Duke (No. 41)

Nov. 29th- Virginia Tech (No. 46)