Projecting Where Virginia Will Land In The Latest CFP Rankings Release

Where will the committee place Virginia this week in the rankings?

Nov 15, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarter back Chandler Morris (4) looks for an opening against Duke Blue Devils defensive tackle Aaron Hall (99) during the first quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

The Virginia Cavaliers took a dip in last week's college football playoff rankings, but they took care of business on Saturday against Duke and are hoping that it is going to make a difference in their ranking placement tonight.

Now, Virginia's placement in the rankings is not going to mean a whole lot because the only path that Virginia has to the CFP is by winning the ACC Championship and being one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. The Cavaliers have an off week to get ready for their rivalry game vs Virginia Tech, a rivalry that they have struggled to win in.

So where will they end up tonight?

Projecting the rankings

Nov 15, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back J'Mari Taylor (3) scores a touchdown against the Duke Blue Devils during the third quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Last week, Virginia fell to 19th in the CFP rankings and I would not be surprised if they are right there again tonight.

There was not enough movement ahead of the Cavaliers for them to warrant a move up, unless perhaps they swap spots with Michigan at No. 18. The Wolverines struggled in their win over Northwestern and have not been playing great over the past few weeks. I doubt it happens, but that is the only movement I could see.

I also don't think anyone is going to jump UVA. No. 20 Louisville lost, No. 21 Iowa lost, No. 22 Pittsburgh lost, No. 24 USF lost, and No. 25 Cincinnati lost.

I think UVA is likely to stay put, but if they did move up, I think a small swap with Michigan is the only path to a possible move up for the Cavaliers.

Great defensive effort

The biggest reason that Virginia won on Saturday was the play of the defensive unit, which held an explosive Duke offense to fewer than 20 points. After the game, head coach Tony Elliott talked about how well they played and what it was like seeing that:

"Extremely important. But I think you've seen over the last several weeks that that group has been coming into form and really starting to gel on all three levels. And so super proud of those guys and just play complementary football, which, you know, helped the offense to be able to go out and know that they don't have to be perfect,right? They got their brothers on the other side of the ball who are going to be there with them and play complimentary football. We knew coming in that we hadn't seen really anybody get to the quarterback, right? Their offensive line and their scheme had done a really good job, but we felt like we had to stop the run first and foremost. I think everybody knows how great 10 the quarterback and very experienced offensive line, but I thought what really made them go was their ability to stay ahead of the chains and run the football, which allowed them to be, you know, allowed them to have the playaction stuff and, so I thought they did a really good job from from a staff standpoint putting together a good plan and then the guys, man, they owned itand they went out and they executed. So, I think when we talk about the middle eight, that's what we talk about. So, those three points right there at the end of the half are huge.

We were hoping that it was seven, but we said we have to come away with points, right? So, that put us up, I think that put us up 10 right there. And then we talked about when we came in at halftime, I said, "Hey, we're not talking about going out and playing the next 30 minutes. I'm focusing on the next four minutes, right? Winning that second half of the middle eight, starting with a defensive stop, special teams maintaining field position, and then the offense going and scoring. And I think right there that kind of let them know that we're, man, we're not letting up and that that it was going to be a fourth quarter game and then we were able to kind off from there progress and there was a little bit of a low right there in the fourth quarter but I thought that they turned it back on and finished the right way."

Virginia is off this week and returns to action for the final game of the regular season next Saturday vs Virginia Tech.