SP+ Predicts Final Score for Virginia's Upcoming Matchup vs Duke

Now that the Virginia Cavaliers have finally sealed their regular-season finale victory over Virginia Tech, the Cavaliers have found their way to the ACC Championship Game. On Dec. 6 at 8 p.m. EST, UVA will be facing Duke for the chance to claim the ACC title in Charlotte.

The last time the Cavaliers faced the Blue Devils, Virginia defeated them 34-17. This was one of many upsets that Virginia claimed. At this time, Duke is 7-5 overall and 6-2 in conference play. Virginia is riding a 10-2 record and a 7-1 conference record.

Already having a successful matchup against the Blue Devils under their belt, how are things looking for the Cavaliers' upcoming game? According to the SP+ prediction, this could play out in Virginia's favor.

ESPN's Bill Connelly Releases Latest SP+ Prediction

A football player in a navy blue uniform running a with a brown football past two players in white uniforms. — Nov 29, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers wide receiver Kameron Courtney (5) runs with the ball as Virginia Tech Hokies cornerback Thomas Williams (23) and Hokies safety Tyson Flowers (11) chase in the second quarter at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

In Bill Connnelly's updated SP+ prediction for this weekend, he has UVA running with a 68% chance of winning over Duke, with a projected score of 33-25. Knowing that this game could end in a tight score, it's imperative that the Cavaliers score early and maintain a lead.

CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK SP+ PICKS

Ohio State 26, Indiana 25
Dawgs 27, Tide 24
Texas Tech 33, BYU 21
UVA 33, Duke 25
North Texas 37, Tulane 29
JMU 37, Troy 17
UNLV 30.4, Boise 30.0
Kennesaw State 31, Jax State 30
Miami-OH 24, WMU 23

Full list: https://t.co/WFRdyhmZOt pic.twitter.com/zMvm6bwws5
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 30, 2025

Connelly explains his metric on ESPN by stating:

"... it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that I originally created at Football Outsiders in 2008. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking, so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system does.

It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

During the recent Virginia-Duke matchup, UVA may have won, but head coach Tony Elliott made it clear that his program was a little too comfortable out on the field and on the sidelines. As he mentioned, anything is possible in college football — relaxing is not an option when there is so much at stake. It's more important than ever for the Cavaliers to remain focused and hungry for victory if they want to secure the ACC title.

This is a game that Elliott and his program have been fighting for throughout their 2025 campaign. If they can pull their strongest elements from their previous games and implement them into this weekend's matchup, UVA could be crowned champion.