SP+ Predicts the Final Score for No. 20 Virginia vs Duke

The Virginia Cavaliers' week eleven matchup against Wake Forest did not go as planned. In fact, the Demon Deacons beat all odds and ended up clinching a 16-9 victory over the Cavaliers. Heading into the contest, numerous projections had UVA coming out on top, but Wake Forest proved that anything is possible in college football.

With the loss, Virginia dropped eight spots in the AP Top 25, placing them at No. 20. The Cavaliers are now riding an 8-2 overall record and are running 5-1 in conference play. There were plenty of mistakes made during their week eleven meeting, but during Elliott's postgame press conference, he highlighted how ball security largely dictated the game's outcome.

"... It was pivotal. I think they got six points off the fumbles, right? So six points off the fumbles, and seven points off a punt return, so special teams and ball security. We've been preaching it. Sometimes we have to learn. I think these guys got an opportunity to learn. I don't think anybody was trying to put the ball on the ground. You know, the ball got knocked out, out of Danny's hands, but he's getting ready to pass, and, you know, he's going to get blamed for that. But we've got to strain a little bit harder to make sure that the protection is cleaner so he can get that ball off."

Heading into week twelve matchups, UVA will need to improve in this key area if the players want to get back on track. As Elliott explained, this was a learning opportunity for the Cavaliers, and now they have the chance to make a comeback against Duke.

ESPN's Bill Connelly Releases Latest SP+ Prediction

A football player in a navy blue jersey trying to tackle a player in a white jersey onto the green field — Nov 8, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Wake Forest Demon Deacons running back Demond Claiborne (1) carries the ball as Virginia Cavaliers defensive back Donavon Platt (28) defends during the second half at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Virginia is not favored to win against the Blue Devils this weekend, but UVA has had some impressive upsets throughout the season. Will they be able to do so again?

ESPN analyst Bill Connelly released his latest SP+ projections for week twelve, showing UVA facing a loss to Duke by a score of 30-28. However, his projection doesn't have the Cavaliers too far off the mark, as the Blue Devils' win probability falls at 54%.

WEEK 12 SP+ PICKS

Bama 25, OU 24 😬
Georgia 27, Texas 23
ND 32, Pitt 24
Duke 30, UVA 28
USC 29, Iowa 24
Utah 35, Baylor 22
Louisville 29, Clemson 23
Rebs 35, Gators 17
BYU 30, TCU 23

Full list: https://t.co/1UvCJdO4pY pic.twitter.com/epuSVxWH8M
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 9, 2025

While the Cavaliers have shown their ability to rise as underdogs, defeating Duke is no simple task. Not only is this a road contest for UVA, but the players are also grappling with their loss to the Demon Deacons, which ended their stunning winning streak. Needless to say, their confidence is going to be quite a bit lower than it has been in their recent games.

“So I talked to them [the Cavaliers] in the locker room, and I told them that all of our goals that we started the season with are still out there, right? We never had a goal that said we wanted to go undefeated in the ACC, right?" Elliott said during his recent media appearance. "Our goal is to win the conference championship and the state championship, and we still have an opportunity ahead of us with the next two ball games. So let's not let this beat us twice. Yeah, we got humble pie. I mean, coaches, players, all of us. We got to own it. We got to, you know, go back to work, figure out where we can get better and stay together, because we still got everything ahead of us.”

Kickoff is scheduled for Nov. 15 at 3:30 p.m. at Wallace Wade Stadium, home of the Blue Devils.

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