SP+ Predicts Tight Virginia - Florida State Final Score

Who will take home the victory in the Week Five matchup between Virginia and #8 Florida State?

Sep 20, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers defensive lineman Jacob Holmes (23) celebrates with teammates after recording a sack against the Stanford Cardinal during the third quarter at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Virginia is trending in the right direction as it heads into their first major matchup against a formidable opponent this season in the #8 Florida State Seminoles. Friday marks a battle between the two best offenses in the ACC. Chandler Morris and the Hoo's will host Tommy Castellanos and the high-powered Seminoles this Friday at 7 PM ET in Charlottesville.

SP+ Predicts Tight Finish

Sep 20, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back Harrison Waylee (21) carries the ball as Stanford Cardinal safety Jaylen'Dai Sumlin (3) and Cardinal linebacker Zach Johnson (38) attempt a tackle during the fourth quarter at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

What is SP+? Here is how ESPN analyst Bill Connelly describes it:

"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

This week's numbers are a great sign for Virginia. According to Connelly's SP+ index this week, the Hoo's are projected to fall to Florida State, 28-25 in Week Five.

Connelly also gives Florida State just a 57% chance to beat UVA at Scott Stadium. For comparison, FSU had a 99% chance to win last week against Kent State.

Obviously, UVA is a much stronger program than the dreary Kent State Golden Flashes but the comparison to the 17th-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide is flattering.

Alabama is not the same program they had been under former head coach Nick Saban but they still are a top team in the nation. The Crimson Tide offense and defense rank amongst the top-half of the SEC. Quarterback Ty Simpson is one of the best signal callers in the conference - and country - for that matter.

History Against Florida State

Sep 14, 2019; Charlottesville, VA, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback James Blackman (1) passes the ball as Virginia Cavaliers linebacker Charles Snowden (11) defends in the first half at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Virginia has a history of upsetting the Seminoles. Arguably, one of the biggest upset victories for the Hoo's came against FSU back in 2005.

Florida State was ranked #4 in the nation when Virginia shocked the ACC, defeating FSU 26-21 at Scott Stadium.

UVA's offense attack was driven by quarterback Marques Hagans' 300-yard, two TD performance. The Cavaliers' defense shut down the FSU offense, intercepting Drew Weatherford three times.

This Virginia roster had 15 players eventually make it to the NFL including defensive studs 2x Super Bowl champion DE Chris Long and 2013 Pro Bowl LB Ahmad Brooks.

Overall, FSU has handled UVA in this ACC series. The Seminoles are winning the head-to-head series, 15-4. Florida State has also won seven of the last 10 matchups against the Hoo's. However, it is important to note FSU's record against UVA on the road is not as stellar as when they host the Hoo's at Doak S. Campbell Stadium.

Let's see what Friday brings.