Staff Predictions for Virginia vs Duke ACC Championship Game Tonight

Will the Virginia Cavaliers claim the ACC Championship title tonight over Duke?

Nov 29, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers wide receiver Kameron Courtney (5) is pushed out of bounds after a catch by Virginia Tech Hokies cornerback Thomas Williams (23) in the second quarter at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

With the Virginia Cavaliers gearing up to face the Duke Blue Devils tonight, predictions are pouring in as to who will come out on top. At the time of this writing, FanDuel Sportsbook has Virginia listed as a 3.5-point favorite to win, with the over/under set at 57.5. ESPN's FPI also has UVA coming out on top, but again, the margin isn't substantial. According to the FPI, Virginia only has a 56.1% chance of winning over Duke.

Taking into account the odds and the overall performances from both programs this year, our staff predictions show UVA clinching the conference title tonight. Here's how things are looking:

Jackson Caudell (Publisher): Virginia 34 - Duke 20

Maria Aldrich (Writer): Virginia 31 - Duke 28

"I think Virginia's defense will step up even more tonight. In recent weeks, the Cavaliers' defensive unit has been heating up exponentially, and it couldn't have come at a better time. Duke is known for their offensive abilities, so it will be imperative for UVA to enter the matchup prepared to apply pressure."

Virginia Must Stop Duke's Run Game

Nov 15, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back J'Mari Taylor (3) runs the ball during the first quarter against the Duke Blue Devils at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

While thinking back to UVA's previous matchup against Duke on Nov. 15, head coach Tony Elliott weighed in on what helped Virginia secure the 34-17 victory. As Elliott explained during his latest press conference:

"I think it started with the opening drive. We were able to keep their offense on the sideline for a good amount of time. 15-play drive, and that obviously is never good for an offense when you're sitting on the sideline that long. Then the first play brought a little bit of pressure that forced him to step up. I think from there it just bred confidence with the guys, and they continued to just be confident in the plan and were able to win some one-on-ones.

I think the ability to stop the run helps you in defending the pass and getting a pass rush, but we also understand that it's not going to be that easy this go round. We're not assuming that we're going to have the same outcome. We understand that we're going to have to do a really good job because they have a really good offensive line. We were just able to make a few plays that day."

Of course, as he reiterated, this will be no easy task, particularly with Duke's quarterback Darian Mensah on the field. Throughout the season, Mensah has been lighting up the stat sheet. In order for the Cavaliers to defeat the Blue Devils, they will need to pressure him and disrupt his game. Fortunately, the Cavaliers have proven their ability to do this in the past, but that does not necessarily mean that they can do so again. This is the ACC Championship Game, and both programs are expected to show relentless efforts.

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