Staff Predictions for Virginia vs Missouri TaxSlayer Gator Bowl Matchup

Will the Virginia Cavaliers win their Gator Bowl matchup against the Missouri Tigers?

Dec 6, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back J'Mari Taylor (3) joins wide receiver Eli Wood (82) after his tying score during the second half of the 2025 ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

The Virginia Cavaliers are now one day away from their TaxSlayer Gator Bowl matchup against the Missouri Tigers. At this time, FanDuel Sportsbook still has UVA listed as a 4.5-point underdog, with the over/under set at 45.5. Throughout their 2025 campaign, the Cavaliers have claimed several unexpected wins, so it wouldn't be unheard of for UVA to clinch an upset.

Ahead of the matchup in Florida, the On SI staff considered the strengths of both programs and ultimately predicts that Missouri will come out on top. As mentioned, an upset is always possible, but it looks like the Tigers are the more likely candidate to win. Here's how our predictions look:

Jackson Caudell (Publisher): Missouri 27 - Virginia 24

Maria Aldrich (Writer): Missouri 30 - Virginia 20

"After facing such a disappointing loss in the conference title game, I think Virginia will have lost some momentum, giving the Tigers a bit of an edge. While I'd expect to see the Cavaliers' offense to deliver, I'm also anticipating a disrupted defensive unit, particularly with Missouri's Ahmad Hardy on the field."

UVA Chases 11th Win

Dec 6, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott greets players during the second half against the Duke Blue Devils during the 2025 ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

If Virginia secures a win at the Gator Bowl, it will add an 11th win to their imposing record. While this alone would give the Cavaliers more credibility, it would also mark a historic milestone for the program, as it would set a new single-season winning record for Virginia. This is only the second time that UVA has claimed 10 wins in a season since 1989. To further the matter, Virginia and Missouri are the only two teams in the ACC to earn double-digit wins this season.

"Man, we've overcome so much adversity three years ago. This program was written off. I don't think anybody would have thought that we'd be here this quickly in this position," head coach Tony Elliott said during his press conference after the ACC Championship Game. "So what I told them is being a champion really is a state of mind and a condition of your heart, and that's what I told them. So in my mind, and I know this may sound crazy in this situation, but I believe I've got the right to call somebody a champion, right, with my background. They've got a heart of a champion."

Needless to say, whether or not the Cavaliers can clinch one more victory at the Gator Bowl, this was a remarkable season for Elliott's team. Their unexpected success will go down in program history as one of the most shocking seasons to date.

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• Three Missouri Players To Watch On Saturday In The Tayslayer Gator Bowl