Updated ACC Win Totals: UVA Has Middling Number Despite Favorable Schedule

Nov 16, 2024; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott watches in the second quarter against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-Imagn Images | Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

Virginia Football has not been able to make a bowl in the first three seasons under head coach Tony Elliott, but they have the perfect schedule to do just that. Virginia heads into the 2025 season with the easiest schedule in the ACC, according to college football expert Phil Steele. Steele's College Football Preview is one of the leading preview magazines in the country, and he has UVA with the easiest schedule in the ACC heading into the 2025 season.

Multiple analysts have listed UVA's schedule as one of the easiest in the country (if not the easiest), and that is a big reason that Fanduel Sportsbook has their win total sitting at 6.5. While that might seem low to most programs, the Cavaliers have not made a bowl game under Tony Elliott, and even if they went under this total, they would still make a bowl game.

Here is how are the complete win totals for 2025:

Clemson- 9.5

Miami- 9.5

Louisville- 8.5

SMU- 8.5

Georgia Tech- 7.5

Florida State- 7.5

North Carolina- 7.5

Virginia- 6.5

Virginia Tech- 6.5

Pittsburgh- 6.5

NC State- 6.5

Duke- 6.5

Boston College- 5.5

Cal- 5.5

Wake Forest- 4.5

Stanford- 3.5

Nov 9, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott reacts on the sidelines against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the second quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

This season is starting to have the feeling of bowl or bust, and CBS Sports analyst Chip Patterson recently made that argument about the Cavaliers' season:

"Year 3 had some real steps forward for coach Tony Elliott. It included the most wins (five) of his tenure, his best conference record (3-5)... But what Elliott has yet to do is lead Virginia into a bowl game, something that the program enjoyed in three consecutive seasons under Bronco Mendenhall from 2017-19.

Virginia clearly understands the urgency of the moment. This is not a roster that is asking fans to wait for development or be patient, something made evident by the 30 incoming transfers across both portal windows. That's tied for the second-largest transfer class in the ACC among schools that did not have a coaching change. Among the group are some instant-impact additions like quarterback Chandler Morris. It might be an uphill battle winning enough coin-flip games against other bowl-hungry programs in the league, but if Elliott's evaluation and portal work pays off, there's a path to the postseason."

Virginia has not been bowl eligible since going 6-6 after the 2021 season, but they have not actually played in a bowl game since making the Orange Bowl in 2019 after going 9-3 and losing to Clemson in the ACC Championship.

Yes, it has been that long.

They open the season at home against Coastal Carolina and the Chanticleers are not supposed to be one of the better teams in the Sun Belt. A telling game this season will be in week two, when Virginia goes on the road to face NC State. The Wolfpack are always tough to beat at home, but they have lost a lot of talent this offseason and are beatable. If Virginia can win that, a bowl game should be within reach.

William & Mary plus Stanford should be gimmes for the Cavaliers and at worst, they should be 3-1 to start the season. They will be underdogs at home vs Florida State, but the Seminoles have plenty of question marks as well and could be vulnerable to an upset away from Tallahassee. It is anyone's guess as to how they look this season.

Going on the road to beat Louisville might be too tough of a task but Virginia did almost clip the Cardinals last season. After a bye week, a home game against Washington State is not super intimidating considering their roster and coaching staff turnover this offseason and then another interesting matchup on the road at North Carolina. How the Tar Heels will look under Bill Belichick is anyone's guess.

All four November games are winnable. Cal and Wake Forest are projected to be among the worst teams in the league, though the Cal game is on the road. Duke on the road will be tough and then to finish the season, Virginia has their annual rivalry game with Virginia Tech. The path is there for Elliott and the Cavaliers to make a bowl game, but they have to prove it on the field.

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