Virginia Opens As A Near Double-Digit Favorite On The Road At Rival North Carolina

Virginia hits the road as a favorite after storming back to defend Scott Stadium against Washington State in Week Eight.

Oct 18, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers kicker Will Bettridge (41) celebrates after making a game-tying field goal against the Washington State Cougars in the final minutes in the fourth quarter at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Virginia returned from the bye with another win, bringing their current streak to five in a row. With a record of 6-1, UVA has been one of the biggest surprises in the ACC and college football this season. Their dynamic offense and clutch defense have catapulted this UVA team to heights they have not seen in over five years. Now, Virginia has to hit the road to take on another ACC opponent in a sputtering North Carolina team that has yet to win a conference game.

Let's see how experts predict the Cavaliers' fourth ACC matchup will play out in Chapel Hill.

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, Virginia opens the week as a 9.5-point favorite over North Carolina. Oddsmakers have the total amount of points scored set at 52.5 points. That score spread and total score means the estimated score could be around 31-21 in Virginia’s favor. Meanwhile, ESPN FPI has given the Hoo's a 84% chance to defeat the Tar Heels.

History Against The Heels

Oct 26, 2024; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Tony Muskett (7) passes the ball s North Carolina Tar Heels defensive lineman Beau Atkinson (12) chases during the second half at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Virginia and UNC have faced off many times as both programs have been longtime members of the ACC. As it stands entering Week Nine, North Carolina is leading the series, 67-58. More specifically, the Tar Heels are 33-14-3 when hosting Virginia in Chapel Hill.

However, recent history is way more friendly towards UVA compared to the all-time series. Virginia has split the last ten games with UNC, including three wins on the road.

Since Tony Elliott has taken the reigns in Charlottesville, Virginia is 1-2 against North Carolina. For context, Virginia entered 2025 with a record of 6-17 in ACC play under Elliott. The last time these two took the field against eachother in 2024, North Carolina ran away with the win, dismantling Virginia in a three-score victory.

Breaking Down 2024 Matchup

Oct 26, 2024; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Anthony Colandrea (10) passes the ball while being hit by North Carolina Tar Heels defensive end Kaimon Rucker (7) during the first half at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

UVA and UNC last faced off in October of 2024. The game was a lopsided affair, heavily in North Carolina’s favor. UNC went into Charlotresville and easily handled Virginia, 41-14.

Future NFL first-round pick running back Omarion Hampton dominated Virginia on the ground, rushing for 105 yards and two scores. The air attack was led by receiver J.J. Jones, who caught five passes for 129 yards and two touchdowns of his own.

Virginia’s offense struggled, mightily. Then-quarterback Anthony Colandrea threw two interceptions before being benched for backup signal caller Tony Muskett. The backup quarterback threw one touchdown in the loss.

The last time these two teams met, however, UVA had suffered their fourth loss and the trajectory of the season was trending in a very bad direction. Now in 2025, this game is absolutely Virginia’s to lose. North Carolina looks very lost under new head coach Bill Belichick while Virginia is poised to make a run for the ACC and the College Football Playoff.