Virginia Opens as a Slight Underdog in Big Week 6 Matchup against Louisville

Despite a historic ranked win against Florida State this past week, oddsmakers still believe Louisville has the edge on the Cavaliers

Sep 27, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Louisville Cardinals tight end Nate Kurisky (85) catches a touchdown pass behind Pittsburgh Panthers defensive backs Rashad Battle (15) and Cruce Brookins (12) during the fourth quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Another big ACC matchup awaits Virginia.

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, Virginia opens the week as a 6.5-point underdog to the Louisville Cardinals. The Hoo's head to L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Kentucky for just their 2nd road game of the new 2025 season. Their first road matchup game was a tight loss to North Carolina State back in Week Two.

Let's take a look at some recent history for the Hoo's to see if that spread will hold true in Week Six.

History On The Road

U of L's Jawhar Jordan (25) eludes Virginia defenders during their game at the L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky. on Nov. 9, 2023. | Sam Upshaw Jr./Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

UVA has been pretty mediocre on the road in recent memory. After winning three of four away games to start the season last year, Virginia lost their last two to end the year. A 35-14 loss to Notre Dame in Week 10 was later followed by a 37-17 loss to Virginia Tech in Week 12. The Virginia offense averaged under 4.5 yards per play and punted 11 times total in those two road losses to conclude 2024.

The stats are even uglier when you look at how the Cavaliers have performed when on the road at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. The Hoo's have a 1-5 record when taking on Louisville in their house. Their last win in Louisville came back in 2021. That is when the-Hoo's quarterback Brennan Armstrong led a 21-point rally in the fourth quarter to secure the 34-33 win.

Reputation As Underdog

Sep 26, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers safety Keke Adams (21) celebrates with fans on the field after the Cavaliers win over the Florida State Seminoles in two overtimes at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The most obvious instance of the Hoo's overcoming the odds just took place in Charlottesville. Virginia finished as a big underdog when the odds closed. At this point, I think it is is safe to say anything is possible as this Virginia team still has not convinced some experts and oddsmakers that they are a true threat in the ACC. It is hard to bet against Virginia after they just secured one of the most exhilarating wins in program history

Virginia was also an underdog against North Carolina State in Week Two. According to VegasInsider, Fanduel Sportsbook listed UVA as a 9.5-point underdog against the Wolf Pack. While Virginia did inevitably come up short, they did make it a closer game than most expected, considering the spread was a multi-score difference. NC State is another formidable conference opponent that was surprised by the UVA offense's competency.

Performance In The ACC

Oct 5, 2024; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back Kobe Pace (5) runs the ball against Boston College Eagles defensive end Quintayvious Hutchins (15) during the fourth quarter at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-Imagn Images | Peter Casey-Imagn Images

This season, Virginia is off to an electric start against conference opponents, sitting at a 2-0 record within the ACC. The Cavaliers can get off to an incredible 3-0 start in conference play if they take down the Cardinals this week. Virginia got off to, 2-0 start in the ACC last season but really fell off as the season continued.

Last year was a rougher story for the Hoo's. UVA finished with a 3-5 conference record including a loss to Louisville on the road. Virginia defeated a poor Wake Forest team by just one point, while pulling out a decent win against Boston College and the Pitt Panthers. Interestingly enough, all three of their ACC wins came on the road last season.

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